tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12116242197721491972024-03-19T03:33:44.035-04:00Sustainable Energy TodayPerspectives on Energy, Society, and the Environment
By Sherrell R. GreeneSherrell R. Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02027976431195016041noreply@blogger.comBlogger113125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1211624219772149197.post-52292054950544795932018-04-26T17:54:00.001-04:002018-04-26T17:54:28.247-04:00Post #114 – Climate Activists Are Lousy SalesmenTake a look at <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/climate-activists-are-lousy-salesmen-1524695895" target="_blank">this thought-provoking Op-Ed</a> by Stewart Easterby in today's Wall Street Journal...<br />
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A few key excerpts...<br />
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"<i>The burden of proof in the climate debate lies with those claiming rising temperatures stem primarily from human activity and not other factors. While the prosecution may feel it has a winning case, the jury's verdict is what counts. Labeling dissenting jurors "deniers" – an insidious association with Holocaust denial – is a losing courtroom strategy. Most people are naturally disinclined to obsess daily about a phenomenon that started long before they were born and won't reach fruition until long after the die.</i>"<br />
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He continues, "<i>It's true that almost all climate scientists believe human-caused global warming is real. Similarly, American adults understand that expert opinions can change or turn out to be spectacularly wrong. Think of the recently overturned consensus on the link between egg consumption and coronary heart disease, or the reports during the 1970s that a new ice age was imminent. Against this backdrop, calling skeptics "anti-science" is counterproductive, especially since skepticism is the essence of the scientific method.</i>"<br />
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He ends with, "<i>My advice to the activists is this: you will attract more supporters to your cause if you can pick a name and stick with it, create a clear call to action, enlist a convincing spokesman with a small carbon footprint, tone down the alarmism, and fix the computer models. Most important, listen to the doubters, don't lambaste them.</i>" <b>(You'll have to read his Op-Ed piece to fully comprehend his context for these statements...)</b><br />
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Mr. Easterby is not a scientist. He's a sales executive who has worked for three publicly traded technology companies. This said, his Op-Ed piece exhibits more clarity, more wisdom, more common sense, <u><b>a</b><b>nd a higher allegiance to the Scientific Method</b></u> than many I've heard from "experts" and "leaders" in the climate change community.<br />
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And just for the record, I believe climate change is real... However, I find the scientific evidence (both quantity and quality) for human-driven (anthropogenic) global warming to be less than compelling – at least to anyone who understands complex systems, and who really holds the Scientific Method in high regard. Given today's ground truth in China, India, and Africa, I'm even less convinced we (the people of planet Earth) can do anything to significantly change the climate change vector over the next several decades. (See my Posts <a href="http://sustainableenergytoday.blogspot.com/2014/04/post-93-my-views-on-climate-change.html" target="_blank">#93</a> and <a href="http://sustainableenergytoday.blogspot.com/2014/05/post-94-sacrificing-africa.html" target="_blank">#94</a>. They are four years old at this point and still as valid as when I originally wrote them...)<br />
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Check out Mr. Easterby's post... profound common sense, wise adherence to classical science, and a tip of the hat to human nature...<br />
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Just Thinking,<br />
SherrellSherrell R. Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02027976431195016041noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1211624219772149197.post-63632211359029659282018-03-30T13:21:00.001-04:002018-03-30T14:06:15.533-04:00Post #113 – Are Current U.S. Nuclear Power Plants Grid Resilience Assets?<div style="text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><i>A brazen plug for my most recent publication on nuclear power and electric Grid resilience…</i><br /><br />The issue of electric Grid resilience exploded on the scene in late September 2017, when the Secretary of Energy Rick Perry directed the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to consider a rule to “<i>accurately price generation resources necessary to maintain the reliability and resilience of our Nation’s electric grid. Specifically, the rule allows for the recovery of costs of fuel-secure generation units that make our grid reliable and resilient. Such resources provide reliable capacity, resilient generation, frequency and voltage support, on-site fuel inventory – in addition to providing power for our basic needs, quality of life, and robust economy… Eligible units must also be able to provide essential energy and ancillary reliability services and have a 90-day fuel supply on site in the event of supply disruptions caused by emergencies, extreme weather, or natural or man-made disasters…</i>” (See Sec. Perry’s letter <a href="https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2017/09/f37/Secretary%20Rick%20Perry%27s%20Letter%20to%20the%20Federal%20Energy%20Regulatory%20Commission.pdf" target="_blank"><b>HERE</b></a>.) The letter directed FERC to consider and complete final action on the proposed rule by December 11, 2017. At the request of FERC’s new Chairman, Kevin McIntyre, Sec. Perry later extended that deadline to January 10, 2018. <br /><br />On January 8, FERC responded to Secretary Perry’s order by terminating the rule making proceedings order by Secretary Perry, and launching a new proceeding (Docket No. <a href="https://www.ferc.gov/CalendarFiles/20180108161614-RM18-1-000.pdf" target="_blank"><b>AD18-7-000</b></a>) to “<i>address resilience in a broader context…</i>” FERC directed “<i>RTOs/ISOs to provide information... that will inform us as to whether additional actions by the Commission and the ISOs/RTOs are warranted with regard to resilience issues</i>.” The new FERC action has three goals: <i>(1) to develop a common understanding among the Commission, industry, and others of what resilience of the bulk power system means and requires; (2) to understand how each RTO and ISO assesses resilience in its geographical footprint; and (3) to use this information to evaluate whether additional Commission action regarding resilience is appropriate at this time.</i>” ISOs/RTOs and other interested parties have until May 9 to file their comments on AT18-7.<br /><br />The very public dialog between the Trump Administration and FERC over the subject of “grid resilience” and “fuel security” shined a welcomed spotlight on these issues. The dialog spawned by DOE and FERC actions has become highly politicized, with advocates from diverse corners of the pro/anti coal and pro/anti nuclear power spectrum using it as a stage to trumpet their views. But the issues raised by Secretary Perry and FERC in the communications cited above are very real and urgent concerns to our nation. <br /><br />Power plant fuel security <u><b>is</b></u> an important consideration, and fuel-secure (90 days or more of on-site fuel) electric generating stations <b><u>would</u></b> be of extreme value in many scenarios involving widespread impairment of our nation’s electric Grid – <u><b>provided these fuel-secure power plants could otherwise operate and serve the Grid during such events</b></u>. <i><u><b>But, fuel security, power plant resilience, and Grid resilience are distinct issues.</b></u></i><b> A power plant can have a secure fuel supply and still not be a resilient power plant. Resilient power plants are a necessary, but not sufficient, requirement for resilient Grids</b>. (I’ll be dealing with these issues in future posts.) <br /><br />In the mean time, those of you interested in the question of whether <u>current</u> U.S. nuclear power plants are major Grid resilience assets might want to read my most recent publication, “<i>Are Current U.S. Nuclear Power Plants Grid Resilience Assets?</i>” in the April 2018 of the American Nuclear Society’s journal, Nuclear Technology. You can freely download the entire Open Access paper <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00295450.2018.1432966" target="_blank"><b>HERE</b></a>. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Here’s the Abstract of the paper:<br /> </span><br />
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><i><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">This paper examines the concept of Grid resilience in the context of the North American electricity supply system and the role existing (Generation II) light water– cooled nuclear power plants(NPPs) play in enabling and enhancing Grid resilience. (Because of similarities in technology and plant design, it is likely that most of the discussion in the paper is also relevant to Generation III and Generation III+light water NPP designs. The applicability of the analysis to Canadian CANDU and Russian VVER technology has not been assessed.) The paper asks and answers three compound questions: (1) what is Grid resilience, and what is a resilient Grid? (2) what is a resilient nuclear power plant (rNPP), and what are the basic functional requirements of rNPPs? and in light of the answers to these questions, (3) are today’s U.S. NPPs significant Grid resilience assets? The conclusion reached is that existing U.S. commercial NPPs are safe and efficient capacity, energy, and reliability assets and they have demonstrated some Grid resilience benefit during regional weather events. However, today’ s NPPs do not deliver the Grid resilience benefits nuclear power can and should provide the nation. The author argues that nuclear power’s unique fuel security (an attribute that could allow NPPs to energize the Grid during extended periods in which fuel could not be delivered to other types of power plants) is a compelling reason to develop future rNPPs that would deliver strategic Grid resilience benefits in the face of evolving hazards and threats to the U.S. Grid.</span></i></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br />I would be interested to hear your feedback once you’ve read the article. A companion paper to be published soon will more fully discuss the definition, attributes, and functional requirements of rNPPs; some enabling design features of rNPPs; and some transformational Grid resilience-enhancing applications of rNPPs. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">I believe the "value proposition" of nuclear energy must be expanded if nuclear power is to remain a viable global energy option in the 21st century. Efficient generation of baseload electricity simply is no longer a compelling argument for nuclear. rNPPs, are a win-win option – both for those whose primary concern is societal resilience, and those who are advocates for nuclear power.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">What do <u>you</u> think?</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br />Just thinking,<br />Sherrell</span>Sherrell R. Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02027976431195016041noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1211624219772149197.post-18691538311862510282017-10-27T12:22:00.002-04:002017-10-27T12:23:43.811-04:00Post # 112: My Presentation Next Week on Resilient Nuclear Power Plants (rNPPs) at Winter ANS Meeting<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Just a "heads-up"...</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Next Wednesday morning (November 1), I'll be presenting a paper on my concept of resilient nuclear power plants (rNPPs) at </span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">the American Nuclear Society's </span><a href="http://answinter.org/" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;" target="_blank">Winter Meeting</a><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> in Washington, DC. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The presentation, </span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">entitled "<b>Enhancing Electric Grid and Critical Infrastructure Resilience With Resilient Nuclear Power Plants (rNPPs)</b>," is scheduled to begin at 1050 in the Advanced/Gen-IV Reactors – II Session. The venue for the presentation is the Washington 1 Room in the Marriott Wardman Park.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The paper addresses the concepts of critical infrastructure and electric Grid resilience, the definition of a "resilient Nuclear Power Plant" or "rNPP", the primary attributes of an rNPP, the functional requirements of an rNPP, potential applications of rNPPs, and some potentially-enabling design features of rNPPs – all in the concise 20-minute timeframe allocated for the presentation.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">I hope to see you there! Let's talk resilience!</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Just thinking,</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Sherrell</span><br />
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Sherrell R. Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02027976431195016041noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1211624219772149197.post-406175879596022942017-10-10T09:41:00.000-04:002017-10-10T10:05:14.031-04:00Post # 111: Resilient Nuclear Power Plants (rNPPs) – Foundational Definitions of Resilience<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /><br /><br />I briefly discussed the concept of a “resilient Nuclear Power Plant” or “rNPP” in my last post, and offered the following definition:<br /><br /><b>“Resilient Nuclear Power Plants (rNPPs) are nuclear power plants intentionally designed, sited, and operated in a manner to enhance overall electric Grid and Critical Infrastructure resilience”.</b><br /><br />Thus, rNPPs are defined in terms of their impact on and value to the electric Grid – rather than their size, architecture, or the particular technology suite they employ. rNPPs might be small and modular, or large and monolithic. The could be cooled by light water, liquid salt, helium, or liquid metal. They could employ a thermal neutron spectrum or a fast neutron spectrum. (<i>This is not to ignore the fact that certain combinations of plant and reactor size, system architectures, and technologies might be more enabling in terms of achieving rNPP functionality than other combinations. These issues will discussed in future posts.</i>)<br /> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">So, beginning with the end in mind, and working "from the outside - in," let’s first examine the fundamentals of resilience…<br /><br />“<b>Resilient</b>”. “<b>Resilience</b>”. What do these words mean?<br /><br />The Merriam-Webster online dictionary provides the following definitions: <br /><br />“<b>resilient</b>: <br /><br />characterized or marked by resilience such as:<br /><br />a. capable of withstanding shock without permanent deformation or rupture<br />b. tending to recover from or adjust easily to misfortune or change”<br /><br />“<b>resilience</b>:<br /><br />1. the capability of a strained body to recover its size and shape after deformation caused especially by compressive stress<br /><br />2. an ability to recover from or adjust easily to misfortune or change.”<br /><br />But, what do the words “resilient” and “resilience” mean in the context of our nation’s <b><a href="https://www.dhs.gov/critical-infrastructure-sectors" target="_blank">Critical Infrastructure</a></b>?<br /><br />The U.S. National Infrastructure Advisory Council’s (NIAC’s) <b><a href="https://www.dhs.gov/publication/niac-critical-infrastructure-resilience-final-report" target="_blank">2009 report</a></b> on Critical Infrastructure resilience is a great place to begin our examination of this question. NIAC’s report offered a very helpful, if qualitative, definition of Infrastructure resilience:<br /><br />“<b>Infrastructure resilience is the ability to reduce the magnitude and/or duration of disruptive events. The effectiveness of a resilient infrastructure or enterprise depends upon its ability to anticipate, absorb, adapt to, and/or rapidly recover from a potentially disruptive event.</b>”<br /><br />NIAC’s report continues:<br /><br />“<b>Absorptive capacity</b> is the ability of the system to endure a disruption without significant deviation from normal operating performance. For example, fire-proofing foam increases the capacity of a building system to absorb the shock of a fire. <br /><br /><b>Adaptive capacity</b> is the ability of the system to adapt to a shock to normal operating conditions. For example, the extra transformers that the U.S. electric power companies keep on store and share increases the ability of the grid to adapt quickly to regional power losses. <br /><br /><b>Recoverability</b> is the ability of the system to recover quickly – and at low cost – from potentially disruptive events.”<br /><br />“…<b>For the purpose of this study, critical infrastructure resilience is characterized by three key features:</b> <br /><br /><b>Robustness</b>: the ability to maintain critical operations and functions in the face of crisis. This can be reflected in physical building and infrastructure design (office buildings, power generation and distribution structures, bridges, dams, levees), or in system redundancy and substitution (transportation, power grid, communications networks). <br /><br /><b>Resourcefulness</b>: the ability to skillfully prepare for, respond to and manage a crisis or disruption as it unfolds. This includes identifying courses of action, business continuity planning, training, supply chain management, prioritizing actions to control and mitigate damage, and effectively communicating decisions. <br /><br /><b>Rapid recovery</b>: the ability to return to and/or reconstitute normal operations as quickly and efficiently as possible after a disruption. Components include carefully drafted contingency plans, competent emergency operations, and the means to get the right people and resources to the right place.”<br /><br />NIAC's report broke new ground and added clarity to the overall issue of Critical Infrastructure resilience. But what about electric Grid resilience in particular? How do these general definitions and concepts of Critical Infrastructure resilience apply to the particular Critical Infrastructure sub-Sector that is home to nuclear power plants – the electricity generation and delivery infrastructure, or, more simply, “the Grid”?<br /><br />I’ll address this question in my next post.<br /><br />Just Thinking,<br />Sherrell<br /></span>Sherrell R. Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02027976431195016041noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1211624219772149197.post-35079161634026893722017-10-05T11:51:00.000-04:002017-10-05T12:14:55.216-04:00Post # 110: Electric Grid Resilience and resilient Nuclear Power Plants (rNPPs) – An IntroductionThe interest in "resilient" critical infrastructure, and electric Grid resilience in particular, seems to be accelerating rapidly.<br />
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The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine's recent publication of "<b><a href="https://www.nap.edu/catalog/24836/enhancing-the-resilience-of-the-nations-electricity-system" target="_blank">Enhancing the Resilience of the Nation's Electricity System</a></b>," the Trump Administration's focus on electric Grid reliability and resilience <a href="https://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2017/08/f36/Secretary%20Perry%20Grid%20Study%20Cover%20Letter.pdf" target="_blank">(<b>Sec. Perry's Cover Letter</b></a> and <b><a href="https://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2017/08/f36/Staff%20Report%20on%20Electricity%20Markets%20and%20Reliability_0.pdf" target="_blank">DOE Staff Report on Electricity Markets and Reliability</a></b>), and this week's Congressional hearings on electric Grid resilience (<b><a href="https://science.house.gov/legislation/hearings/full-committee-hearing-resiliency-electric-grid-s-only-hope" target="_blank">Resiliency: the Electric Grid's Only Hope</a></b>) and reliability (<b><a href="https://energycommerce.house.gov/hearings/part-ii-powering-america-defining-reliability-transforming-electricity-industry/" target="_blank">Powering America: Defining Reliability in </a><a href="https://energycommerce.house.gov/hearings/part-ii-powering-america-defining-reliability-transforming-electricity-industry/" target="_blank">a Transforming Electricity Industry</a></b>), all suggest the time has finally come for a thoughtful and detailed examination of several closely related topics: <b><a href="https://www.dhs.gov/critical-infrastructure-sectors" target="_blank">Critical Infrastructure</a></b> resilience, electric Grid resilience and reliability, and nuclear power plant resilience.<br />
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I've devoted much of my attention during the past two years to the study of electric Grid resilience and the role (current and future) nuclear power plants might play in enhancing Grid resilience. During the next few weeks, I'll be sharing highlights here from a 110-page report I published in August [<b>ATI-TR-2017-14</b>, "<i><b>Resilient Nuclear Power Plants (rNPPs) – Potential Building Blocks of U.S. Electric Grid and Critical Infrastructure Resilience</b></i>"]. I will also be delivering a paper entitled, "<i><b>Enhancing Electric Grid and Critical Infrastructure Resilience With Resilient Nuclear Power Plants (rNPPs)</b></i>," at the upcoming <a href="http://answinter.org/program/view-the-program/" target="_blank">American Nuclear Society Winter Meeting</a> on November 1 in Washington, D. C. <br />
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<b>Resilient Nuclear Power Plants (rNPPs) are nuclear power plants that are <i>intentionally designed, sited, and operated</i> in a manner to enhance overall electric Grid and Critical Infrastructure resilience. </b><br />
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Thus the starting point for discussing rNPPs is the definitions of "Critical Infrastructure resilience" and "electric Grid resilience" – two concepts that are surprisingly difficult to define in a quantitative manner that is useful from the engineering perspective.<br />
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I will discuss the concepts of Critical Infrastructure resilience and electric Grid resilience in my next post. <br />
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Just Thinking,<br />
Sherrell<br />
<br />Sherrell R. Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02027976431195016041noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1211624219772149197.post-11825235077248543252017-09-13T11:38:00.002-04:002017-09-13T11:40:56.857-04:00Post # 109: The future of nuclear power depends on ...Some of you are probably wondering what happened to Sherrell. No blog posts since February? Really?<br />
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Without delving into the particulars, I'll just say I've been "head-down" in other pursuits – some of the fruits of which I'll be sharing here over the coming weeks. Today, I'll simply set the stage...<br />
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<i><b>I'm convinced the future of commercial nuclear power (at least in the western world) hinges on whether the nuclear power industry can improve its "value proposition" to society.</b></i><br />
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Although every one of the ~ 100 commercial nuclear power reactors built in the U.S. were constructed primarily as a means of providing safe, reliable, cost-competitive BASELOAD electrical generation capacity (and they <u>have</u> generally done so until relatively recently), <i><b>it is highly unlikely the construction of future commercial nuclear power plants can be justified solely on the traditional baseload generation argument. That argument is no longer sufficient or compelling.</b></i><br />
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So... is there a future for nuclear power? If so, what is it?<br />
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<i><b>I believe there is a compelling argument for more nuclear power; and it has nothing to do with baseload electricity generation, climate change, or industrial heat applications.</b></i><br />
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Curious?<br />
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I'll delve into these questions in coming posts.<br />
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Just Thinking,<br />
Sherrell<br />
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<br />Sherrell R. Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02027976431195016041noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1211624219772149197.post-41681437670166345782017-02-06T15:18:00.001-05:002017-02-06T15:18:26.390-05:00Post # 108: Nuclear Power: Black Sky Liability or Black Sky Asset?
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<span style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">After
a 33-year career at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and 5 years in the private
sector as an independent consultant, last Fall I re-entered the University of
Tennessee in pursuit of my long-delayed PhD.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>My research passion lies at the intersection of society’s dependence on
electricity, electric Grid vulnerability, and the role of nuclear power in Grid
resiliency (particularly with regard to so-called “Black Sky Events”).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span>I am pleased to announce my first peer-reviewed
publication on the subject was recently published in the <i>International Journal
of Nuclear Security</i>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You may download
the paper for free <a href="http://trace.tennessee.edu/ijns/vol2/iss3/3/" target="_blank"><b>here</b></a>… </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Here’s the abstract of the paper…</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<i><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Ready access to abundant electricity is
a key enabler of modern life. During the past decade the vulnerability of
Critical Infrastructure sectors in the U.S. to a variety of natural hazards and
man-made threats has become increasingly apparent. The electrical
infrastructure (the “Grid”) is the foundation for all other critical civil
infrastructures upon which our society depends. Therefore, protection of the
Grid is an energy security, homeland security, and national security issue of
highest importance. Geomagnetic disturbances (GMD) induced by solar coronal
mass ejections (CMEs), electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attacks, and cyber attacks
are three events having the potential to plunge the U.S. into partial or total
Grid failure (de-energization) with subsequent blackouts so massive they are
referred to as “Black Sky Events”. Embedded in the U.S. Grid are almost one
hundred commercial nuclear power reactors in some sixty nuclear power plants
(NPPs). This paper explores the nature of society’s coupled “system of systems”
(i.e. Grid, other Critical Infrastructure, human operators of these
infrastructures, Government, and the Public) that would be stressed by a Black
Sky Event, and presents an analytical framework for probing the behavior of
this system during Black Sky Events. The question of how NPPs might be impacted
by a prolonged Black Sky Event, and what role, if any, NPPs can play in
enabling a rapid recovery from a Black Sky Event is examined. The likely
behavior of an NPP during a Black Sky Event is discussed, and it is concluded
that today’s generation of NPPs are Black Sky liabilities. However, a unique
characteristic of NPPs (the large fuel inventory maintained in the reactor)
could make the NPPs extraordinarily valuable assets should a Black Sky Event
occur. Their value in this regard depends on whether or not it might be
possible to affect a number of changes in the NPPs, the U.S. Grid, and other
Critical Infrastructure in the U.S. to enable the NPPs to become Black Start
Units – generating stations that would be the foundation of recovering the U.S.
Grid during a Black Sky Event. This paper poses the question, “<b><em><span style="font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Can today’s nuclear power plants be transformed from Black Sky
Liabilities to Black Sky Assets, and if so, how?</span></em></b>” An integrated
framework for addressing this question is proposed.</span></i></div>
<i>
</i><i>
</i><br />
<span style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The paper deals both with the current U.S. commercial nuclear power fleet, and future commercial power reactors large and small.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">I hope it is a catalytic contribution to a dialog that needs to occur.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Cheers!</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Sherrell </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span>
Sherrell R. Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02027976431195016041noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1211624219772149197.post-52462317331654239982016-09-20T10:10:00.000-04:002017-02-06T15:12:53.425-05:00Post # 107: Salt Reactors, Kudzu, and Charcoal: The GHG Solution?<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinaXHl1rg1P8fGnu8GySy9ISm0iLFWegxycAkdt9Wg5h-7dFsah1R-RBwnRKgQMDniGdokiVMUnUqZrGm-RLfit9deqBuugb8KoLTtaBg9d0iTTGCTLehqA4dKjTEDFr3NiMnugSzPBsM/s1600/KudzuLeaves.JPG" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="132" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinaXHl1rg1P8fGnu8GySy9ISm0iLFWegxycAkdt9Wg5h-7dFsah1R-RBwnRKgQMDniGdokiVMUnUqZrGm-RLfit9deqBuugb8KoLTtaBg9d0iTTGCTLehqA4dKjTEDFr3NiMnugSzPBsM/s200/KudzuLeaves.JPG" width="200" /></a> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhr8jxUPwUVdClh02Fmhw4Jdh33keB4DVbeqo6_daYhaJTD8hOEEmzhdx9LIVXNfzB7O-nUK5T1lAueNQx_Bsq1dRHCqwaVnV7TZmSM4Fdke7HWiFZXXpqcUftgmMkTK6YPbmddYmyWbc/s1600/Charbon_de_bois_rouge.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="140" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhr8jxUPwUVdClh02Fmhw4Jdh33keB4DVbeqo6_daYhaJTD8hOEEmzhdx9LIVXNfzB7O-nUK5T1lAueNQx_Bsq1dRHCqwaVnV7TZmSM4Fdke7HWiFZXXpqcUftgmMkTK6YPbmddYmyWbc/s200/Charbon_de_bois_rouge.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Source: Wikipedia, https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a0/KudzuLeaves.JPG</span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Charbon_de_bois_rouge.jpg </span></div>
<br />
Here's an interesting article by fellow blogger Rod Adams over at <a href="http://atomicinsights.com/" target="_blank">Atomic Insights</a>, on the possibility of coupling molten salt (or salt cooled) reactor technology with the ancient art of making charcoal, to accomplish the direct removal of carbon from our atmosphere:<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/rodadams/2016/09/16/sequestering-carbon-using-mass-quantities-of-small-scale-supertorrefaction-systems/#679c52fe282f" target="_blank">Sequestering Carbon Using Mass Quantities Of Small Scale Supertorrefaction Systems</a><br />
<br />
The article discusses the ideas of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Shu" target="_blank">Frank Shu</a>.<br />
<br />
Living in the southeastern U.S., I have to admit my first thought when I saw the article was whether one could "feed" Dr. Shu's liquid salt – charcoal production – carbon capture system with <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kudzu" target="_blank">kudzu</a>. (I'm only halfway joking...)<br />
<br />
Several years ago, I led a <a href="http://info.ornl.gov/sites/publications/files/Pub11905.pdf" target="_blank">study</a> at ORNL that looked into the coupling of small nuclear reactors with biorefineries. Turns out there are a number of challenges. Some technical. Some economic. Some logistical. Some regulatory. Many of the technical challenges have to do with inserting thermal energy from a (low temperature) water-cooled nuclear reactor into a highly optimized chemical flowsheet that is based on combustion of some of the biomass feedstock.<br />
<br />
One of the logistical issues associated with such enterprises is the effort, energy, and cost required to grow and deliver the biomass feedstock to the reactor site. Based on these factors, and the market value of the products produced, there's an optimal biomass farm acreage and a maximum distance from the reactor over which the biomass can be transported.<br />
<br />
Leads me wonder... what would the economic model for a salt reactor – kudzu control – charcoal factory look like?<br />
<br />
Could this be the solution to our carbon <u>and</u> kudzu challenges?<br />
<br />
Something to ponder... In the mean time, does anyone know where I can rent a herd of goats for a week or two?<br />
<br />
Just Thinking,<br />
Sherrell <br />
<br />Sherrell R. Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02027976431195016041noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1211624219772149197.post-4850719325628298652015-05-11T15:41:00.002-04:002015-05-11T15:41:39.655-04:00Post # 105: My Appointment to DOE's Environmental Management Advisory Board
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<span style="font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">I was pleased and honored recently
to receive a letter from the Secretary of Energy confirming my appointment to
the Department of Energy’s Environmental Management Advisory Board (EMAB)</span><span style="font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Members of EMAB are appointed by the
Secretary of Energy and serve at the discretion of the Assistant Secretary for
EM. My role will be to provide expert advice on environmental
stewardship, science, and technology. My term ends in Sept. 2016.</span><span style="font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">The mission of EMAB is to
provide independent and external advice, information, and recommendations to
the Assistant Secretary for Environmental Management (EM) on corporate issues
relating to accelerated site clean-up and risk reduction. These issues
include project management and oversight activities; cost/benefit analyses; program
performance; human capital development; and contracts and acquisition
strategies. EMAB membership includes individuals from private industry,
academia, the scientific community, and governmental and nongovernmental
entities. (You can learn more about EMAB <a href="http://energy.gov/em/services/communication-engagement/environmental-management-advisory-board-emab">here</a>.)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;"></span> <div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">As
I think about this appointment, I recall a conversation I had many years ago
with Dr. Alvin Weinberg.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was a
wonderful spring afternoon (much like we’ve been having recently here in East
Tennessee), and I had the privilege of sharing the afternoon with him in his
home in Oak Ridge.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Just Weinberg and
me.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(What a treat!)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I’m sure I asked him dozens of questions that
afternoon.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One question I asked went
something like this, “What do you consider to be the greatest oversight or
worst mistake made by you and your fellow founders of the nuclear age?”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>His response was immediate and
passionate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“We underestimated the
challenge of dealing with nuclear waste.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>And then almost as quickly he added, “I’m not speaking of the technical
challenge.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I think that has been largely
solved.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I’m speaking of the challenge of
dealing with the public and with the public perception that this is an insurmountable
problem.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Now of course, Dr. Weinberg
was speaking primarily about the waste associated with commercial nuclear
power.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But I’ve never forgotten that
conversation and the larger implications of that conversation with regard both
to commercial nuclear power and the legacy waste from our federal nuclear
enterprise.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">Just
a few days ago I had the pleasure of attending the graduation of my niece,
Taylor, at the University of Tennessee.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The commencement speaker was Jim Haslam (founder of Pilot Corporation
and father of our current Governor Bill Haslam).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As is his style, Jim addressed the graduates
and attendees with a brief, focused, and memorable speech.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Among the few points he shared was one that
when something like this: “There are three phases in our lives.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Early on, you LEARN – you prepare for your
future.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Then, you EARN – you earn you
way forward in the world.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Finally, you
RETURN – you give back to those who helped you along the way and to society in
general.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I really liked his
speech.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Personally however, I like to
think that at some point, the learning, earning, and returning become coexistent lifestyle attributes, rather than a strictly serial
sequence of life phases.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Learning never
stops.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Earning doesn’t end.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Returning is a continuous activity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(I’ll bet Mr. Haslam really feels that way as
well.)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">Serving on EMAB is one small way to “return” something to an enterprise that
has given me so much over the past thirty-five years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I look forward to serving. I encourage you to ask, "How can I serve?" and "How can I return?" Every one of us has been equipped with gifts, talents, and experiences that qualify us well to serve others. How about you? Who are you serving?</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">Just
thinking…</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">Sherrell</span></div>
Sherrell R. Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02027976431195016041noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1211624219772149197.post-42411832986598134692015-04-20T22:21:00.000-04:002015-05-12T10:19:24.006-04:00Post # 104: The Sunset of U.S. Nuclear Power?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">This is a post I thought I would never write.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is one I do not enjoy writing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I’ve been thinking a lot lately about the future of nuclear
power in the U.S.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I’ve concluded those
of us in the “pro-nuclear” camp need to face the likelihood that the brightest
days for commercial nuclear power in the U.S. are behind us – at least for the
balance of this century… that no one reading these words today will live to see
the long-awaited “Nuclear Renaissance” in the U.S. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Put simply, I’ve come to believe the most likely scenario for
nuclear power in this country is that it will fail to maintain its current (~
20%) fraction of the U.S. electricity generation mix <u>for the remainder of
the 21<sup>st</sup> century</u> – and may <i>never</i> return to its current level of
market penetration.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I believe this is
almost a certainly through mid-century, and highly likely through the remainder
of this century. <o:p></o:p></span><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I hope I'm wrong.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">There are a number of potential events (discussed below) that
could change my prognosis.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> Some of these events might trigger a nuclear renaissance, while others would probably terminate the nuclear power option in the U.S. </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Allow me to layout the facts as I see them, and engage in a bit of
not-too-far-fetched speculation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I
actually don’t think it requires much clairvoyance. </span><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Reality is staring us in the face.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">THE STATUS QUO</span></b></div>
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<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The miracle of fracking has made natural gas “too cheap to
meter” – the “Gas Glut”.</span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">We have very limited means (i.e. few Liquified Natural Gas
[LNG] terminals) to export our abundant natural gas. So the price of natural gas here is
relatively isolated from world market pressures.</span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">About half the commercial nuclear power plants in the U.S.
operate as “merchant generators” in deregulated markets.</span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Deregulated electricity “markets” place little value on:</span></li>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Supply reliability</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Supply availability</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Supply diversity</span></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Nuclear power plants in deregulated markets are shutting
down because they cannot compete with the price of electricity produced from
fracked natural gas.</span></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Nuclear power plants only come in “one size fits all”
mega-plants.</span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The capital cost of available nuclear power plant designs is
obscenely high – untenable absent some revolutionary (to the nuclear power industry) financing strategy.</span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The U.S. nuclear regulatory structure is, in many ways a
great success and the standard for the world, BUT it obstructs innovation,
ensconces technology lock, and promotes a “good-enough is the enemy of better”
mentality throughout the industry.</span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The American public is largely ambivalent about nuclear
power. Spent fuel disposal is a real
concern for a vocal minority – but it seems to be the problem that will never
go away.</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></b></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">THE BASE CASE SCENARIO TO 2040</span></b></div>
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<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Three dozen nuclear plants (1/3 of fleet) shut down within
the next 10-15 years (possibly much sooner) because they cannot produce
electricity cheaply enough to compete with fracked gas.</span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Perhaps a half-dozen new nuclear power plants are built in the U.S. during the
next 20 years.</span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Nuclear’s portion of U.S. generation mix decays
monotonically over next 25 years to ~ 13-15% of the U.S. electricity generation
mix by 2040.</span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The only “Renaissance” that occurs is a “Decommissioning Renaissance” (a term coined
by my friend Eric Abelquist at ORAU).</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">THEN WHAT? – LIFE AFTER 2040<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The answer to the question of whether or not nuclear power
in the U.S. has seen its best days depends critically on what happens between
now and 2040 as the U.S. takes a “<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Nuclear
Nap</b>”.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<o:p><b><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Factors That Might Revive Nuclear Power In The U.S.</span></b></o:p></div>
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<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></o:p></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I see a few events that might occur in the next couple
of decades that would portend a brighter future for nuclear power:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">A “<b>Fracking Fukushima</b>”
occurs – an event (such as the contamination of a major ground water aquifer)
that results in much tighter regulation or perhaps even prohibition of natural
gas fracking in the North America. In
such a scenario, the price of natural gas would escalate dramatically, making
the price of nuclear-generated electricity an attractive alternative again.</span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Orwellian <b>carbon tax</b>
is enacted that penalizes natural gas, petroleum and coal – obviously making
nuclear power and renewables energy sources more price competitive.</span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">A major focus on <b>Domestic
LNG Terminal Construction</b> enables the U.S. to export our natural gass, and
raises domestic natural gas prices to world market values (a slow effect, no
doubt, but one that makes nuclear power more price-competitive).</span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">For those of you who are banking on Small Modular
Reactors of all sorts – a <b>Revolutionary Reduction in
the Capital Acquisition Cost & Operating Cost</b> of nuclear power plants dramatically lowers
the barrier to plant acquisition and economic operation. I’m
skeptical about the likelihood of this particular dynamic. Small reactors would reduce the absolute acquisition cost of a nuclear power plant, but barring some other event, I
don’t see a revolution coming in the operating cost of nuclear power plants
(large or small). After all, if a fully-amortized
large plant operating in today’s deregulated market cannot produce electricity
cheaply enough to compete with natural gas, I’m skeptical a new plant – of any
size – will be able to reduce the price of electricity production sufficiently to slay the
natural gas dragon.</span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Finally, the </span><b style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Emergence of Enlightened Regulated Electricity Markets</b><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">– markets that place a tangible value on reliability, availability, and diversity of electricity generation sources. Such markets would seek a strategically-mixed portfolio of electricity generation assets to reduce the overall dependence of electricity production on a single “fuel source”.</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<o:p><b><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></b></o:p></div>
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<o:p><b><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Factors That Might Turn Out The Lights On U. S. Nuclear Power</span></b></o:p></div>
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<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></o:p></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">On the other hand,
there are a number of potential developments that could drive the last nail in U.S. nuclear power’s coffin:</span></i></span></div>
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<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;">A <b>Breakthrough in
Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Technology</b> – puts coal back on the table.
The U.S. transitions from a “Gas Glut” to a “Coal Glut”. No one needs nuclear anymore for baseload
capacity. Twenty-five years is a long
time for researches to tackle a challenge.
Is there a solution out there for CCS, or will it remain a technology
similar to nuclear fusion – always just over the horizon?</span></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;">A <b>Breakthrough in
Battery Technology</b> – eliminates the renewable energy (solar and wind) penetration barrier,
obliterating the grid instability problem posed by “excessive” penetration of
these time- and frequency- varying electricity generators.</span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;">An <b>American Fukushima</b>-like
accident at one of our commercial nuclear power plants – results in the
permanent shutdown of the majority of the U.S. nuclear fleet. (I have previously shared my view that the
Japanese people have actually responded to the events at Fukushima in a more
sanguine manner than I believe the U.S. population would if such a major accident occurred in the U.S.)</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Wild Card Events<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">There are, of course, some “Wild Card” events that could happen
during the next 25 years. I'm speaking of events that would throw all the silverware in the air.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Here's my #1 chaos generating event:</span></div>
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</div>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The mega-event would be a huge <b>Geomagnetic Storm</b> that decimates the
North American Grid – forcing a rebuild of both the Generation and the T&D
network. The impact of such an event
(which is overdue if history is any guide) is hard to predict. Solving the
nuclear power riddle might be the least of our problems if it were to occur.
(Actually, I’d be more concerned about avoiding an American Fukushima if a catastrophic geomagnetic storm occurred.)</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">AND SO…<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">One of the (few) benefits of aging is that I’ve become more
willing to “stare the dragon in the mouth”. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">My
analysis leads me to conclude the nuclear industry can put itself out of
business by poor safety performance, but it needs a “little help” (probably a
“lot of help”) from somewhere else to remain a viable energy alternative in the
U.S. through the remainder of this century and beyond</i>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">We are all notoriously bad at predicting the future.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(After all, who predicted the fracking
revolution?)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Whether U.S. nuclear power
is sliding into a beauty rest or a coma remains to be seen.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But the next twenty-five years are a crucial
time period.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Are we seeing the Sunset on U.S. Nuclear Power, or just a “Nuclear Nap” to be followed by Sunrise on
the long-awaited nuclear renaissance?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No
one can know. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Just Thinking,<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Sherrell</span><o:p></o:p></div>
Sherrell R. Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02027976431195016041noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1211624219772149197.post-15643251049243984002015-04-07T16:11:00.003-04:002015-04-07T16:49:40.486-04:00Post # 103: Iran's Version of the FactsIn the last post (<a href="http://www.sustainableenergytoday.blogspot.com/2015/04/post-102-examining-framework-for.html" target="_blank">#102)</a> I provided a brief analysis of the contents of the US Fact Sheet regarding the nuclear framework agreement with Iran.<br />
<br />
You had to know it would happen... <br />
<br />
Harvard University translated the <a href="http://iranmatters.belfercenter.org/blog/translation-iranian-factsheet-nuclear-negotiations" target="_blank">Iranian Fact Sheet</a> – Iran's version of the details of the framework for the nuclear deal. Guess what? It conflicts with the U.S. Fact Sheet in some VERY important ways. <br />
<br />
In the interest of not wasting my time reproducing what already exists, I'll just refer you <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/04/07/nuclear-deal-critics-worried-about-dueling-fact-sheets-from-us-iran/" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="http://www.algemeiner.com/2015/04/05/discrepancies-revealed-between-us-and-iranian-versions-of-framework-deal/">here</a>, to a couple of brief analyses of the areas in which the two "Fact Sheets" conflict with each other... (It's difficult to find an analysis in which the commentator doesn't have an axe to grind.)<br />
<br />
Regardless of which version of the "facts" one adopts, here are some high-level observations about areas in which the two fact sheets appear to agree...<br />
<ul>
<li>Iran will be left with over 5000 operational centrifuges.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Iran will be left with an intact nuclear research (including enrichment technology) infrastructure (facilities) and a research program.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>UN sanctions would be lifted (the two fact sheets disagree on when that will happen) - with no so-called "snap-back" mechanism to reinstate them if Iran doesn't comply with the terms of the agreement.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Iran will not be required as a condition of the agreement to modify its broader behavior in the middle-east and around the world</li>
</ul>
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It's clear Iran's nuclear knowledge and technology genies aren't going back into the bottle... I believe a truly objective analysis of this agreement (even if the US version of the facts is 100% correct and it is perfectly implemented) is that it will not prevent Iran from securing a nuclear weapon. Perhaps delay that day, but not prevent it. And it will not result in a change in Iran's otherwise aggressive and disruptive behavior in the Middle East and around the world. (In fact, it could actually exacerbate Iran's behavior because once sanctions are lifted and the Iranian economy improves, Iran will have more resources available to pursue their broader goals.) <br />
<br /></div>
<div>
Sobering no matter how you cut it...</div>
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<br /></div>
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Just Thinking,</div>
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Sherrell</div>
Sherrell R. Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02027976431195016041noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1211624219772149197.post-47140921064960412472015-04-03T00:01:00.000-04:002015-04-03T00:02:48.073-04:00Post 102: Examining the Framework for the Iranian Nuclear DealToday's post is a little "off topic" with regard to my normal energy/society/enviroment theme - or maybe not...<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsZ_wMwTOq9kY5NxGi9_CeUbzkSTdzArwo8bhcUOe-pYXRrTT6T0lQg0fuVqsn2O9B1zN5tH31QXXn8V0wn8NkoUnkO8rMa2TV9ccZElWQQShfOCupCAzaqoEvLUbxNHjR2uQ1sj4QK1U/s1600/16790680599_83a1c5ae51_k.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsZ_wMwTOq9kY5NxGi9_CeUbzkSTdzArwo8bhcUOe-pYXRrTT6T0lQg0fuVqsn2O9B1zN5tH31QXXn8V0wn8NkoUnkO8rMa2TV9ccZElWQQShfOCupCAzaqoEvLUbxNHjR2uQ1sj4QK1U/s1600/16790680599_83a1c5ae51_k.jpg" height="266" width="400" /></a></div>
<span id="goog_1189195368"></span><span id="goog_1189195369"></span><br /></div>
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<br />
The P5+1 and Iran announced today an "agreement" on a "framework" for a final deal on Iran's nuclear program. Actually, as Secretary Kerry tweeted in a response to a World Post <b><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/04/02/iran-nuclear-deal_n_6993060.html" target="_blank">article</a></b> this afternoon, "we have the parameters to resolve the major issues" the final deal must address. While recalling we were supposed to have the actual deal in place by now (rather than a "framework"), the <b><a href="http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/USSTATEBPA/2015/04/02/file_attachments/378460/Media%2BNote%2B-%2BApril%2B2%2B2015%2B-%2BLausanne.pdf" target="_blank">US Fact Sheet</a></b> on today's announcement provides a surprising (and encouraging) amount of detail on this "framework". <i>(I encourage you sit down with a cup of tea or coffee and carefully read the fact sheet. Much will be said in the media about this agreement in the coming days. The fact sheet will be one essential primer on the subject.)</i><br />
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I’m surprised at the specificity and the POTENTIAL
effectiveness of the elements of the agreement.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Frankly, I had pretty low expectations.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Pleasantly surprised.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This said,
I offer a few brief observations from my quick read of the US Fact Sheet:</div>
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<li>Presuming the final deal actually codifies the content of the US Fact Sheet, it’s all about VERIFICATION. No one has been successful to date in
achieving a level of inspections and verification within Iran that produces the
required level of transparency. And, of
course, Iran has been caught “cheating” repeatedly on its previous
“agreements”. So I’m looking very
carefully at both the details of the inspection regime/protocols and how Iran complies (or not) with them. I’m from Tennessee, but my
mind is in Missouri on this one…</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>At the risk of being skeptical (paranoid?)… if Iran really is
only two to three months from achieving breakout (as the US Fact Sheet
asserts), and if (as Hassan Rouhani tweeted in response to the World Post article mentioned above) the actual agreement won’t be finished until June 30… June 30 is (interestingly) almost exactly THREE MONTHS from today. Prudent folks should wonder what Iran will be doing
behind the scenes during those three months?</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Unlike US sanctions, there appears to be no “snap-back”
trigger for UN sanctions on Iran.
Rather the Fact Sheet simply states “UN sanctions could be re-imposed”
in the event of Iran’s “non-performance”.
The US will apparently maintain the sanctions infrastructure necessary to enable
us to quickly “snap-back” (reinstitute) our sanctions.
But the Fact Sheet indicates no such effort will be made to enable a UN
“snap-back” once the UN sanctions are removed. I wonder how difficult it would be for the UN (an organization not known for quick or
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harmonious responses) to "snap back).</div>
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<li>I remain deeply troubled by the absence of any coupling of
this nuclear agreement to cessation of Iran’s broader disruptive and
destructive behavior in the Middle East. I really worry about unspoken quid pro quos... It's really difficult for me to see how Iran will not be emboldened by any agreement that fails to link their broader behavior in the Middle East and around the world to the lifting of sanctions resulting from the nuclear deal (as important as this deal is).</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Finally, the people who know Iran best (it’s Middle East neighbors) –
and who have the most to lose from Iran’s potential nuclear breakout – have been
the most critical of this nuclear deal.
I’m assuming they were not privy to the details we have just
learned. It will be telling to see the
reaction of Israel, Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and others over the next
couple of days as they analyze and respond to the details…</li>
</ul>
<div>
Got to go read it again... much detail to ponder...</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
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Just Thinking,</div>
<div>
Sherrell</div>
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Sherrell R. Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02027976431195016041noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1211624219772149197.post-36025427239559645632015-03-30T21:44:00.001-04:002015-03-30T22:00:23.192-04:00Post # 101: Speaking Engagement at Univ. of Tennessee Dept. of Nuclear EngineeringLast week I was pleased to speak at the University of Tennessee's Nuclear Engineering Colloquium. The subject? A Nuclear Safety Ethos for the 21st Century. I had the opportunity to interact with a great group of undergraduate and graduate students, faculty, and staff. The presentation was webcast live and video recorded. You can check it out <a href="http://sf.ites.utk.edu/utk/Play/995a3bc186274573a894f4ffaeea76f21d?catalog=437d588e-0d12-48f1-8b1e-72c70f9d1fb8" target="_blank">here</a> if you are interested in viewing the video recording or seeing my viewcharts...<br />
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Cheers,<br />
Sherrell<br />
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<br />Sherrell R. Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02027976431195016041noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1211624219772149197.post-29093777197692577682015-01-07T17:05:00.000-05:002015-01-08T09:49:10.036-05:00Post # 100: An Ethos of Reactor Safety (2015)<div style="text-align: center;">
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As is common at the interface between last year and this year, I've engaged in my share of review and reflection. One subject near and dear to my heart is that of commercial nuclear power safety.<br />
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Two years ago this month I posted my personal nuclear safety manifesto. In <a href="http://sustainableenergytoday.blogspot.com/2013/01/post-75-reactor-safety-ethos-thinking.html" target="_blank">Post # 75</a>, I presented a four-point "Ethos of Reactor Safety". My motivation for doing so was/is my concern over the "graying" of the reactor safety profession, and (what I perceive as) a never-ending seduction in the industry and among regulatory authorities to place our confidence in check lists, regulatory frameworks and guidelines, complex computer codes, "generic industry responses", and our great track record (Fukushima and TMI excepted) – while paying far less attention to the culture and skill of the nuclear safety professional who exercises and navigates through this landscape. <br />
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I've had numerous conversations since the original Ethos was posted in January of 2013. The Ethos also appeared as a postscript in my paper, "<i>The Canary, The Ostrich, and the Black Swan: An Historical Perspective On Our Understanding of BWR Severe Accidents and Their Mitigation</i>," which appeared in the May 2014 edition of the American Nuclear Society's journal "Nuclear Technology" (Vol 186, No. 2).<br />
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After two years of discussion and reflection, I've decided the four-point Ethos should really be a five-point Ethos. The fifth point is actually an elevation of a statement that was embedded in one of the original four points, but, I'm convinced, warrants elevation.<br />
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So here you go. Fresh for 2015, an updated (improved?) version of<br />
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="color: red; font-size: large;"><i><b>Greene's Ethos of Nuclear Reactor Safety (2015)</b></i></span>:</div>
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This ethos is comprised of <i>five ideals, principles, and attitudes essential to the practice of reactor safety</i>:<br />
<ol>
<li><span style="color: red;"><b><i>An acute awareness of one's responsibility to society</i></b>.</span> Abundant, reliable, and affordable electricity is the chief technical enabler of the quality of life most of us desire. Nuclear power is the only energy technology available today with a realistic potential to supply abundant electricity to billions of people around the world living with little or no access to it. It is also one of the few technologies which, if implemented poorly, has the potential to prevent our neighbors from ever returning to their communities and homes. These two realities (benefits vs. risk) should provide strong motivation to those who aspire to be a nuclear safety professional;</li>
<li><span style="color: red;"><i><b>A chronic sense of uneasiness</b></i></span>. This means having a <i>persistent</i> <i>questioning attitude</i> regarding what we know, what we know we don't know, and what we don't know we don't know;</li>
<li><span style="color: red;"><i><b>A zeal for fundamental understanding.</b></i></span> The <i>passion for and skills to integrate experimental data, simulation & analysis results, and operational experience</i> to arrive at a <i>science-based understanding of the facts</i>;</li>
<li><i><b><span style="color: red;">A scientific and technical humility</span>.</b></i> One who has <i>a "healthy respect" for the limits of our (and their personal) knowledge</i> and the <i>wisdom to operate within these limits</i>. One who constantly asks themselves, "What if I'm wrong?"</li>
<li><span style="color: red; font-style: italic; font-weight: bold;">A willingness to challenge the status quo and the Establishment. </span> The reactor safety professional is, in many ways, <i>the conscience of the industry</i>. He or she must possess the <i>strength of their convictions</i> to challenge "group think", "easy solutions", and "convenient responses" when their personal knowledge, insights, and instincts compel action – and to be willing to bear the consequences of doing so.</li>
</ol>
<br />
<div>
So there you have it. Five points I feel every nuclear safety professional should have engrained in their DNA – an interlocking set of principles, attitudes, and behaviors that will ensure commercial nuclear power and related nuclear enterprises continue to set the highest standard for industrial safety as we move into the 21st century.</div>
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Cheers and Happy New Year.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Just Thinking,</div>
<div>
Sherrell</div>
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<br />Sherrell R. Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02027976431195016041noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1211624219772149197.post-15837998641499618832014-12-23T22:06:00.002-05:002014-12-23T22:23:46.122-05:00Post # 99: When New Technology Isn't Better<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">(WARNING: This post is not gender-neutral.)</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Sometimes new technology isn't better. It just more expensive.</span></b><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Evidence the humble "safety razor". </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I grew up watching my Dad shave with an old Gillette "Butterfly" safety razor. By the time I reached bearded adolescence in the late 1960's, "sophisticated" gentlemen were moving away from that century-old technology to the latest greatest method of removing facial hair – the electric shaver. So, of course, as an aspiring suave and debonair young man in the age of the Apollo moon landings, I went with the electric shaver. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Funny thing. It irritated my face and didn't do a particularly good job on the whiskers either. Never mind. I was suave and debonair (remember?) So I stuck with that rotary abrasive machine for twenty years.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Then, in the late 1990's Gillette introduced it's now famous "Mach-3" razor handle and tri-blade razor cartridge. I had to have one. (That suave and debonair thing again...). My original Mach-3 gave up the ghost about 10 years after I purchased it. I then purchased a fancy red one. I still have that fancy red Mach-3, and I've shaved with it every day since I purchased it... fighting off the subsequent enticements to move to four-blade razor cartridges, five-blade razor cartridges, articulating razor heads, and (now) pivoting / gimbaled razor heads. (I'm sure I've left out someone's favorite evolution.) I'm convinced that if beings from another galaxy landed here and watched a series of today's razor commercials, they would be certain they were looking at micro surgical instruments for brain surgery - not something intended to remove facial hair!</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I've used that fancy red Mach-3 every day – until about three weeks ago, that is. On that fateful day, I journeyed down the razor aisle of the local Walmart with my wife. I couldn't believe my eyes. The aisle was filled with multi-blade razor cartridges of all colors and shapes. But it wasn't the colors and shapes that grabbed my attention.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">It was the price – $3.50 to $4.50 per cartridge. That's right. $4.50 for a multi-blade razor cartridge that one affixes to the end of that old Gillette Mach-3, uses for two weeks (max) and discards. Why had I not noticed this before? Because my lovely wife has been purchasing my blades all these years.</span><br />
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<i><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Then it dawned on me. Could it be that the reason the "Mach-3" razor is called the "Mach-3" is that that's about the speed at which it liberates dollars from your billfold for those outrageously expensive razor cartridges?</span></i><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I was incensed. Enough already! It was back to the future. So, hopping onto Amazon, I ordered myself a modern embodiment of my Dad's safety razor – a Merkur long-handled version (about $30) and a package of 100 (that's right, 100) razor blades for another $14.00. Total expenditure: $44.00.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">And what have I learned in the past three weeks with my Merkur experiment? </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I've been a suave and debonair idiot for 45 years. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Two weeks into the experiment with the Merkur, I've only nicked myself once (clumsy). I can tell NO difference between the quality of the shave the "old faithful" Merkur" is giving me vs. that Mach-3 with the nonobtainium blades. And I'm actually enjoying shaving again. Oh... and I've just finished my second week on the blade that came with the razor. So... if this performance is representative, at $14/100 for blades, I'll be spending 1.4 cents every two weeks for blades in the coming year. That's less than $7 a year for blades – instead of $100/yr I've been spending.</span><br />
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<b><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">So...some technology lessons here...</span></b><br />
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<b><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">1. When the consumer isn't price-conscious, or isn't the one making the "buy decisions", you can sell almost anything for almost any price. Just convince them it's a cool piece of technology.</span></b><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">2. After 14 shaves, I can honestly tell you, I can detect NO difference in the quality of shave between the fancy modern cartridge razor and the old-school Merkur safety razor. Conclusion(s)? <b>Sometimes, our ancestors got it right. We need to admit it. Celebrate it. Move on. Put our creative juices into solving some other problem.</b></span><br />
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<b><span style="color: #cc0000; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">And my final advice to you guys out there? </span></b><br />
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<ul>
<li><b><span style="color: #cc0000; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">DITCH THAT FANCY MULTI-BLADE CARTRIDGE RAZOR </span></b></li>
<li><b><span style="color: #cc0000; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">INVEST IN A FINE OLD-SCHOOL SAFETY RAZOR, AND </span></b></li>
<li><b><span style="color: #cc0000; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">ENJOY SHAVING AGAIN!</span></b></li>
</ul>
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<b><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></b>
<b><span style="color: #cc0000; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Merry Christmas!</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Sherrell</span></b><br />
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Sherrell R. Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02027976431195016041noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1211624219772149197.post-52294035734121625672014-09-27T16:30:00.003-04:002014-09-27T22:29:57.495-04:00Post # 98: Kudos to Koonin (More on Climate Change)Back in my <a href="http://www.sustainableenergytoday.blogspot.com/2014/04/post-93-my-views-on-climate-change.html" target="_blank">Post # 93: My Take On The Climate Change Debate</a>, I shared my views that, far from what many individuals and organizations would have you believe, the debate over climate change is not settled – because the climate science isn't settled. I offered several specific technical reasons why I feel we simply do not understand climate change as well as many in the media, in politics, and (most unfortunately) in the scientific community would have us believe.<br />
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And so I was delighted to read Dr. Steven Koonin's (former Undersecretary for Science in the Department of Energy) lengthy article in last week's Wall Street Journal, entitled, <a href="http://online.wsj.com/articles/climate-science-is-not-settled-1411143565" target="_blank">Climate Science Is <i>Not</i> Settled</a>. In that article, which was quite a bit longer than my post, Dr. Koonin echoed every major argument I presented in Post # 93 – and came to the same major conclusions.<br />
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Kudos for Koonin!Sherrell R. Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02027976431195016041noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1211624219772149197.post-38691637905090529182014-07-12T23:53:00.000-04:002014-07-12T23:53:36.919-04:00Post # 97: Three Threats More Certain, More Imminent, and More Destructive Than Global Climate ChangeAs I've posted before (<a href="http://sustainableenergytoday.blogspot.com/2014/04/post-93-my-views-on-climate-change.html" target="_blank">Post # 93</a>), I feel our global climate is indeed changing (not a new thing), but the data to support the anthropomorphic (human-driven) climate change argument is inconclusive – at least for now. However, any good scientist or engineer will leave room and time for the Scientific Method to alter current perspectives. I certainly do. But that's not the subject of this posting...<br />
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I've recently run across a number of debates on the subject of "global threats to humanity". This prompted me to consider my short-list of threats that could alter our future in ways we prefer not to think about. I've concluded there are at least three global threats to humanity that are:<br />
<ul>
<li>more certain</li>
<li>more imminent</li>
<li>more aggressive</li>
<li>more destructive</li>
</ul>
than anthropomorphic climate change. Here are my <span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>Top Three Threats</b></span> (not necessarily in priority order):<br />
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<span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>1. A Global Pandemic</b></span> - we are long overdue; the world is much more
highly integrated (in terms of mobility of pathogenic hosts) than in the
past; and the nasty bugs/viruses are clearly evolving in a worrisome direction at an alarming
rate. A pandemic would most likely start in the undeveloped world and spread to the Developed World. <br />
<br />
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>2. A Geomagnetic Storm</b></span> - we are <i>really</i> long overdue for a high-magnitude
storm, and developed societies are far more dependent on the electric grid
than we were when the last great storms occurred in 1859 (the so-called
"Carrington Event") and 1921. A large storm could bring down
continental electric grids (and everything that depends on them) for
periods of time ranging from many months to many years. This would
reduce developed countries to barbaric conditions almost "at the flick
of a switch". The Developed World is much more vulnerable than the Undeveloped World to this threat.<br />
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<span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>3. Geopolitical Instability Due To Lack of Access To Electricity.</b></span> A
billion of our fellow inhabitants of this globe have virtually NO access
to electricity TODAY, and another billion or so have such limited
access that only their most basic needs are infrequently met. The growing impact of this lack of access to abundant,
reliable, and affordable electricity is a current, and growing problem
of colossal humanitarian and geopolitical import. This dynamic, along with all the associated induced phenomena, is destined to be a growing source of geopolitical instability throughout this century. But it is first and foremost, a CURRENT humanitarian crisis. The Undeveloped World is currently suffering from this "threat", and the Developed World seems to lack both the conviction, the wisdom, and perhaps the means to effectively attack the issue in the near-term.<br />
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Personally, I believe these three threats are more likely to significantly impact human life on Earth over the next several decades than anthropomorphic global climate change. I believe an objective, risk-based analysis that includes appropriate treatment of uncertainties would confirm this conclusion.<br />
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<i><u>My conclusion, if correct, does not imply we shouldn't be paying attention to global climate change. It just means we should be paying <b>more</b> attention to these other threats.</u></i> All three threats have many intersections with science and technology. But that's fodder for future posts...<br />
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Just Thinking,<br />
SherrellSherrell R. Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02027976431195016041noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1211624219772149197.post-31811145015696652902014-06-24T16:36:00.000-04:002014-06-25T08:45:25.833-04:00Post # 96: Africa - A Continent In The Dark<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> (African / Globe graphic source: </span>Source: </span><span style="font-size: x-small;">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Africa_%28orthographic_projection%29.svg)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Those of you who know me know I feel the highest use of technology is to alleviate the suffering of my fellow human beings. I've previously shared here that the two parameters most impacting quality of human life on this planet are: (1) social stability (peace); and (2) access to abundant, affordable, and reliable electricity. </span><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Think of all the ways we use electricity. We "flip the switch" and we're shocked if the lights don't come on. We rarely think about the "around the clock" duty our home and office space conditioning equipment is serving. We turn the faucet and we're surprised if clean, clear water doesn't immediately issue forth. Then there's our internet service, cable TV and, of course, our cell phones.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I discussed in Post # 94 the plight of those living today in Africa in terms of their prospects for a quality of life most of us in the "developed countries" take for granted. Put bluntly, their prospects for a life you and I would want for ourselves and our children are very dim - literally.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">In Post # 94, I pointed out that a heartless and unthinking push to globally decarbonize electricity could doom hundreds of millions – probably well over a billion – of our fellow humans to a life of misery. Why? Because low-carbon means no coal-fired electrical generation - the one source most likely to enable African nations to bootstrap themselves into the modern world. Don't get me wrong. I know coal is dirty. I lived the first ten years of my life in a home heated by a coal-burning stove in rural East Tennessee. I prefer nuclear power to coal-fired power - all things being equal. But often, all things aren't equal – particularly in undeveloped countries.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I want to expand my discussion in Post # 94 by sharing some numbers I calculated this morning to quantify the mass of humanity whose lives are at stake in this argument...</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I began with World Bank Data (<a href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS?order=wbapi_data_value_2011+wbapi_data_value+wbapi_data_value-last&sort=asc" target="_blank">here</a>, <a href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS/countries?order=wbapi_data_value_2011%20wbapi_data_value%20wbapi_data_value-last&sort=asc&display=map" target="_blank">here</a>, and <a href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL" target="_blank">here</a>), detailing country-by-country access to electricity for the nations of the African continent. I chose to focus on Sub-Saharan Africa, whose total population was around 800 million souls in 2007 and is approximately 1.1 billion today. A new <a href="http://www.prb.org/Publications/Datasheets/2013/2013-world-population-data-sheet/data-sheet.aspx" target="_blank">report</a> from the Population Research Bureau, predicts the population of this region will double by 2050.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I selected 25 countries, whose combined population in 2011 totaled 743 million or about 75% of the (then) population Sub-Saharan population. For those interested, the countries on my list were: </span><br />
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<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Angola</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Benin</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Botswana</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Burkina Faso</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Cameroon</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Congo Republic</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Democratic Republic of Congo</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Ethiopia</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Gabon</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Ghana</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Kenya</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Lesotho</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Malawi</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Mozambique</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Namibia</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Nigeria, </span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Senegal</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">South Africa</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Sudan, Tanzania</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Togo, Uganda</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Yemen, Zambia</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Zimbabwe.</span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Nigeria leads the nations on my list in terms of total population (164M in 2011). Four countries on the list have (had) populations exceeding 50M (Nigeria, Ethiopia, Dem. Republic of Congo, and South Africa). Tanzania probably has a population of 50M today.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Now for the shocking results:</span><br />
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<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Over 85 million people in Nigeria (a nation with significant coal reserves) have no access to electricity. More people are without electricity in Nigeria today than live in the states of California, Texas, and New York combined.</span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Over 69 million people in Ethiopia have no access to electricity today. This is more than the current population of Florida, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Georgia combined.</span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Over 58 million people in the Dem. Rep. of Congo currently have no access to electricity. This is equivalent to the entire population of Michigan, North Carolina, New Jersey, Virginia, Washington, Massachusetts, and Arizona.</span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Just over 39 million people in Tanzania (nearly the combined population of Indiana, Tennessee, Maryland, Missouri, Maryland, Wisconsin, and Minnesota) have no electricity.</span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Thirty-four million people in Kenya (almost the combined population of Colorado, Alabama, South Carolina, Louisiana, Kentucky, Oregon, Oklahoma, and Connecticut) have no electricity.</span></li>
</ul>
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<b><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">All told, over 480 million people in Sub-Sahara Africa were without electricity in 2011. That number easily exceeds 500 million people today.</span></b><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><b>Think of it... half a BILLION human beings without electricity – just in Sub-Sahara Africa alone! </b><b>That's close to the entire population of the US, Canada, and Mexico combined... </b></span><br />
<ul>
<li><b><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">without electricity</span></b></li>
<li><b><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">all day</span></b></li>
<li><b><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">every day.</span></b></li>
</ul>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Men, Women, Boys, and Girls. The aged and infirmed. Newborns and toddlers. People who have dreams of a better life for themselves and for those whom they love. People just like us.</span><br />
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<b><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">AND SO...</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Whatever approach to global carbon management we take, we have a moral obligation not to pursue an agenda that dooms a billion people to a life of squalor, sacrifice, and suffering without electricity. I'm pro-nuclear. But, as I discussed in Post #94, nuclear power simply isn't a good near-term fit to the ground reality in some circumstances. As dirty as they are, fossil fuels have an important role to play in the here, now, and near-future – especially in underdeveloped countries. Creating extra barriers for hundreds of millions of our fellow human beings who desperately need electricity, while those of us in developed countries sit in air-conditioned offices with high speed internet connections, drinking our favorite thermally-tailored drink, promoting and even dictating a low-carbon energy future, is cruelty – plain and simple. And cruelty in the name of a low-carbon agenda (no matter how noble the goals) simply cannot be condoned or supported. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">So once again I echo the sentiment of a growing number of pro-environment technologists who say...</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">We must not sacrifice Africa on the altar of a low-carbon agenda.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Just thinking,</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Sherrell</span></div>
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<br />Sherrell R. Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02027976431195016041noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1211624219772149197.post-64029409073565434222014-06-13T14:12:00.001-04:002014-06-13T14:17:31.027-04:00Post # 95: Now Showing – The Canary, The Ostrich, and The Black Swan<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5N1mCJVYU5XmsPnlqPQYL0HA_tFHwN8nCzXFMt9ZW0R5iBnfMV3ZWJuR_Q41sdEwvX_i9AIzwfHcb95_o-RB9UpbsEWk3_uZt_vEPXR3hJq1_n_3Bi4l9MW3clXRBgTx3d87QRpL0HnQ/s1600/Screen+Shot+2014-06-13+at+2.03.57+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5N1mCJVYU5XmsPnlqPQYL0HA_tFHwN8nCzXFMt9ZW0R5iBnfMV3ZWJuR_Q41sdEwvX_i9AIzwfHcb95_o-RB9UpbsEWk3_uZt_vEPXR3hJq1_n_3Bi4l9MW3clXRBgTx3d87QRpL0HnQ/s1600/Screen+Shot+2014-06-13+at+2.03.57+PM.png" height="464" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>Finally</i>, after a year and a half, my <a href="http://www.ans.org/pubs/journals/nt/a_35652" target="_blank">complete paper</a>, "<i>The Canary, The Ostrich, and The Black Swan: A Historical Perspective On Our Understanding of BWR Severe Accidents and Their Mitigation</i>," is on the street. Check it out in the May 2014 issue (Vol 186, Number 2) of the American Nuclear Society's Journal, <i>Nuclear Technology</i>. The abstract...<br />
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<i>Between 1980 and 1995, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) was engaged in an intense effort to understand commercial boiling water reactor severe accident phenomenology, severe accident progression, and the potential role of the reactor operator in severe accident mitigation. This paper presents a summary of the major findings and conclusions from that period. Both detailed accident- and plant-specific results are discussed. The author, who was a member of the ORNL research team that performed the work, offers a historical perspective on lessons learned, lessons ignored, and lessons forgotten from that period. The relevancy of these findings in the post-Fukushima world is addressed. The author discusses the evolution of the current risk-informed regulatory framework, and identifies some key questions to be addressed and critical steps to be taken to inform the development of the new nuclear safety construct required in the wake of the Fukushima Daiichi accident. Finally, the author closes by sharing an ethos of nuclear reactor safety that can guide a new generation of reactor safety professionals in the post-Fukushima era.</i>Sherrell R. Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02027976431195016041noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1211624219772149197.post-14535417171366155622014-05-06T23:53:00.000-04:002014-05-07T16:59:01.909-04:00Post # 94: Sacrificing Africa<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyf5lCJ63NU1JD-LE5wY6M8PMgqwzoGCakodHY8qPk2mTMYyfRWKZ4yLEIk4chvSPSdwWFaxl-UZ18x5lTYer6hQxU27QxZ83sYqq0pMC7-lWTn3tqxXLM33Pe662sOdCDYZ1I366JUUk/s1600/Africa.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyf5lCJ63NU1JD-LE5wY6M8PMgqwzoGCakodHY8qPk2mTMYyfRWKZ4yLEIk4chvSPSdwWFaxl-UZ18x5lTYer6hQxU27QxZ83sYqq0pMC7-lWTn3tqxXLM33Pe662sOdCDYZ1I366JUUk/s1600/Africa.png" height="320" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Africa_%28orthographic_projection%29.svg</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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By now, most of you have (I hope) read my last post (#93). In that post, I discussed "my take" on the climate change debate. I won't rehash that discussion here, but I do want to draw your attention to a related and thought-provoking <a href="http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303380004579521791400395288?KEYWORDS=africa+climate+change&mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702303380004579521791400395288.html%3FKEYWORDS%3Dafrica%2Bclimate%2Bchange" target="_blank">Op Ed piece</a> in today's Wall Street Journal by <span class="c-name" itemprop="author" rel="author"><a href="http://www.ips-dc.org/staff/184" target="_blank">Caleb S. Rossiter </a>(the Director of the American Exceptionalism Medial Project, adjunct professor at American University, and an associate fellow at the Institue for Policy Studies.)</span><br />
<br />
<span class="c-name" itemprop="author" rel="author">I do not know Dr. Rossiter, but I suspect there are many topics on which Dr. Rossiter and I would strongly disagree. However, my heart and mind resonate with his impassioned article concerning the disregard by the global warming advocacy community for the plight of the inhabitants of Africa. </span><br />
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<span class="c-name" itemprop="author" rel="author">I know many of you share my view that the highest use of technology is in the service of mankind – meeting real needs and solving (to the extent technology can do so) problems that <i>currently</i> doom so many on this planet to lives of hardship, suffering, and sorrow. </span><span class="c-name" itemprop="author" rel="author"><span class="c-name" itemprop="author" rel="author">As I've discussed here before, it is well
established that the absence of war and civil unrest, and access to
abundant / affordable electricity are the two greatest enablers of </span></span><span class="c-name" itemprop="author" rel="author"><span class="c-name" itemprop="author" rel="author"><span class="c-name" itemprop="author" rel="author"><span class="c-name" itemprop="author" rel="author">a desirable quality of life on this planet. </span></span></span> </span><br />
<br />
<span class="c-name" itemprop="author" rel="author">Dr. Rossiter argues in his WSJ piece that fossil fuels offer the only realistic hope for supplying the African continent with abundant / affordable electricity in the immediate future. (While I believe the optimal solution would involve a mixed generation system with "micro solar power" serving individuals, families, and remote settlements; "as clean as possible" fossil-fired generation of diverse sizes; and a smattering of nuclear generation plants where civil order and infrastructure enable it; theoretical debates about optimal approaches do not detract from the compelling nature of Rossiter's argument. Besides, small nuclear plants don't exist today, but micro solar and a range of fossil generation options do. </span>Rossiter's article contrasts the UNCERTAINTIES regarding climate change and options for mitigating it, to the CERTAINTY that restricted access to fossil fuels will doom many hundreds of millions of human beings to a short life filled with struggle and suffering. <i><span class="c-name" itemprop="author" rel="author">Africa and Africans need electricity NOW. </span></i><br />
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The picture I have in my mind is that of a physician who refuses lifesaving radiation treatments to his cancer patients because the physician is concerned about the possible impact of background radiation on the public at large. <i>Dare I say it...</i> "misplaced priorities"?<br />
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Personally, I believe it is immoral to deny (or work in opposition to) a technology that will save lives TODAY, based on an (uncertain) fear that other lives <i>may</i> be impacted in the FUTURE. It's (as always) about risk and risk management.<br />
<br />
Rossiter's article is a sobering reminder that intellectual humility (freely admitting we don't know what we don't know) and empathy for our fellow man are not optional for those of us in the scientific and technical enterprise. Please read the article... an important commentary on technology and culture in today's world...<br />
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Just Thinking,<br />
<br />
Sherrell<br />
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<br />Sherrell R. Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02027976431195016041noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1211624219772149197.post-33292209522291526522014-04-01T23:39:00.001-04:002014-06-17T10:30:40.527-04:00Post # 93: My Take On The Climate Change DebateI am not a climate scientist. I'm a nuclear engineer. But having spent over thirty years at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), I know good science and good R&D technique when I see it. I'm frequently asked my views on the global climate change debate. During my years at ORNL, I "rubbed elbows" with a number of outstanding scientists involved in climate research and simulation. I approach the issue from the perspective of someone schooled and experienced in the application of the Scientific Method, and one who is intimately familiar with the challenges of understanding and simulating large, complex systems.<br />
<br />
So, with some reservations, I'm going to (finally) share my views here. In a Question & Answer interview format.<br />
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<b><span style="color: #cc0000;">QUESTION 1: Do I believe the climate is changing?</span></b><br />
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<b>ANSWER:</b> Of course! During the not-too-distance past, the "temperature" of the earth has been both much hotter and much colder than it is now and has been during my lifetime. Most of the wildest swings in temperature predate significant human populations and the industrial revolution. Witness:<br />
<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixAbtp5USKW6XiJ4AMVL-8gRHeszXoB5HQ3nTkqf8enUIuqchib_XKmRJPFowP6jbeODF9fCJj6Plpx1d4gU0SfbkYRGq2VHvf9SXj5eRLk-zrfpNRBtGGTmdtdXb5d21Kx-j1z_uCDN4/s1600/All_palaeotemps.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixAbtp5USKW6XiJ4AMVL-8gRHeszXoB5HQ3nTkqf8enUIuqchib_XKmRJPFowP6jbeODF9fCJj6Plpx1d4gU0SfbkYRGq2VHvf9SXj5eRLk-zrfpNRBtGGTmdtdXb5d21Kx-j1z_uCDN4/s1600/All_palaeotemps.png" height="204" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">History of Earth's Temperature (Ref: Glen Fergus @ http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:All_palaeotemps_svg.svg)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="text-align: center;">
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<b><span style="color: #cc0000;">QUESTION 2: Do I believe humans and human activities are a major driver of climate change (i.e. do I believe in Anthropogenic Warming"?</span></b><br />
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<b>ANSWER</b>: I'm agnostic on this issue. I've examined a robust sample of the available scientific information on anthropogenic warming. When examined objectively and in the context of issues I'll note below, it simply isn't conclusive. I'm NOT saying we humans aren't driving climate change. We might be. But the available evidence, viewed in context, isn't compelling (at least to me and many technical professionals like me).<br />
<br />
Given the emotional charge surrounding this issue, I do feel compelled to offer a bit of my reasoning with regard to why I'm agnostic about Anthropogenic Climate Change. My reasoning, as simply as I can compress it here comes down to:<br />
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1. <b>HISTORY</b>: <b>As noted above, the Earth's climate has been both much hotter and much colder than it now is – and these swings obviously had nothing to do with human activities.</b> Therefore, it is reasonable to believe the earth's temperature should continue to vary with time.<br />
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2. <b>KNOWLEDGE: The phenomena and mechanisms determining the Earth's climate are extraordinarily complex, and our understanding of many of these mechanisms is rudimentary at best</b>. The various phenomena are coupled in extremely complex ways. Viewed from an engineering perspective, the system contains both "positive" and "negative" feedback effects, and both linear and non-linear phenomenon. It is neither a closed or an open system, but some hybrid of the classical definition of these systems. I spent much of my career simulating extraordinarily complex nuclear reactors and severe accidents in nuclear reactors. That's kid's play compared to the challenge of simulating the complexity of the earth's biosphere and it's climate.<br />
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3. <b>MODELS: Our climate change models simply "aren't there yet".</b> We cannot yet accurately predict climatic temperature changes for one-two decades – much less a century or more. (Heck, we can't accurately predict the temperature in East Tennessee a few days in advance.) As evidence, I'll simply point out that only a couple of some ninety major climate change models used by the global climate simulation community accurately predicted the "pause" in climatic temperature escalation we've witnessed during the past fifteen years or so. You can easily overwhelm yourself with articles about this development by "googling" "climate models" and "pause". Here's a compendium of predictions assembled by <a href="http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/02/95-of-climate-models-agree-the-observations-must-be-wrong/" target="_blank">Roy Spencer</a> (with whom I have no affiliation):<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZs_R0gUufj2HpkxqZte9zZp-jmo6pkD5vOi1wXGhUVuHwTBv8WqC6SyUqebo9HoYCjSXSO3_DaMdnuDIaI8TrvU3IFK7U7SveXAKaOvVlXUc4yY7WG4-E6RscFowL8Lok3an4G-pnh2o/s1600/CMIP5-90-models-global-Tsfc-vs-obs-thru-2013.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZs_R0gUufj2HpkxqZte9zZp-jmo6pkD5vOi1wXGhUVuHwTBv8WqC6SyUqebo9HoYCjSXSO3_DaMdnuDIaI8TrvU3IFK7U7SveXAKaOvVlXUc4yY7WG4-E6RscFowL8Lok3an4G-pnh2o/s1600/CMIP5-90-models-global-Tsfc-vs-obs-thru-2013.png" height="576" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Compilation of Global Climate Model Predictions vs. Observed Data (Ref. DrRoySpencer.com)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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The errors between the predictions and the actual observed global temperatures have grown over the past ten years of so. (Some in the climate modeling community have attempted to explain away the poor correlation between the predictions and the observations by citing any number of unexpected natural phenomena that were responsible for the differences. <b>But doesn''t that actually support my point?</b>) <span style="color: red;"> </span><span style="color: #cc0000;"><i>I know from decades of complex simulation work, that the best indicator of one's understanding of a phenomena is one's ability to predict the future behavior of that phenomenon. Judging by that standard, we have a long way to go in climatic modeling.</i> </span> The problem is no-doubt some combination of missing physics and phenomenon, physics for phenomena that are modeled incorrectly, missing or incorrect feedback loops, and spatial and temporal smoothing/averaging schemes. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_E._P._Box" target="_blank">George Box</a> said, "all models are wrong but some are useful". Sherrell Greene says, "... and the only way to know which models are useful is to get the data." (Oh... and one other thing I learned during my simulation career is that often the most important thing one gains from a simulation isn't the answer, but rather the ability to ask more intelligent questions.) This leads to the next issue...<br />
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4. <b>DATA: Our climate data sets aren't yet sophisticated enough to validate the models.</b> It is virtually impossible to validate climatic models in the classical engineering sense of the term. The problem has to do both with the specific parameters (variables) the models predict (spatially and time-average variables) and the limitations of the parameters we can actually measure and the data we can actually collect. Put simply, due to the enormous geospacial and temporal data averaging/smoothing required in the simulation models, it's extraordinarily difficult to define a data collection paradigm that accurately samples the actual parameters the models are calculating. After all, what is "the Earth's average temperature"? <span style="color: #cc0000;"><i>This challenge is not unlike having a model that predicts the "average heart rate" of an American. Exactly what data does one collect (and where and when does one collect it), to obtain a suitable data set for validation of the model's predictions?</i> </span> <i><u>And once we have the "average heart rate", how do we interpret and use the information?</u></i> When you can't actually measure what you are predicting, you are forced to synthesize values for the predicted parameters from parameters you can measure. This "data synthesis" problem as been the source of countless pains and sorrows in the simulation business since the inception of computer simulation. Data measurement uncertainty, instrument bias, spatial averaging, time averaging, data interpolation, and data extrapolation of actual measured values can be the devils' workshop (wittingly or unwittingly). One simple case in point: Steve Goreham, the Executive Director of the Climate Science
Coalition of America (with whom I have no affiliation) has shared
two posts (<a href="http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/climatism-watching-climate-science/2013/jul/3/hot-weather-and-climate-change-mountain-molehill/" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/climatism-watching-climate-science/2013/jul/30/why-climate-models-are-wrong/" target="_blank">here</a>) that articulate the common-sense concerns many have
today with the prevailing "scientific community" (whatever and whomever
that is) view on global warming...<br />
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5. <b>ORGANIC "PRESSURE" IN THE CLIMATE RESEARCH ENTERPRISE. </b>There are many, many fine scientists conducting climate change research. They are professionals of the highest skill and integrity. (I believe the vast majority of researchers fall into this camp.) However, any "society" produces more of what it rewards. In the scientific research community, one of the most important metrics of professional success is the level of research funding one secures and sustains. And in this, the squeaky wheel does usually get the grease. Speaking as one who spent over thirty years in the federal research complex, I know <span style="color: #cc0000;"><i>it is far easier to attract and sustain research funding to attack an imminent crisis, than it is to attack a slowly evolving issue with uncertain consequences</i></span>. The result of this reality is that the "organic" pressures (often subliminal) within the international climate research enterprise will naturally tend to promote an atmosphere of doom and gloom. It is simply a fact that many of those in the scientific community who
most loudly trumpet the scourge of man-made climate warming are the
one's whose careers depend on the flow of national and international
dollars into climate change research. (Cautionary Note: this doesn't, by the way, mean the doom and gloomers are wrong – just that one should maintain an healthy scientific skepticism about the entire matter.) This relates to my final issue...<br />
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6. <b>DOGMA vs. THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD. </b>Finally, I'm extremely concerned about the <b>defensive and unprofessional attitude <u>some</u> in the climatic research community take with regard to those who question the <i>status quo</i> or their definition of the scientific community's "consensus opinion" on climate change</b>. (The emails revealed via the highly-publicized and unethical hack into the emails of the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia in 2009 spotlighted this type of behavior.) <span style="color: #cc0000;"><i>Be careful when the first response to questions or criticism by anyone claiming to represent the scientific
community is to disrespect,
disparage, and otherwise question the intelligence or honesty of the
one posing the question. This is a sure sign the "expert" has abandoned the Scientific Method in favor of his or her adopted dogma. </i></span><br />
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<span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>QUESTION 3: What should we do about climate change?</b></span><br />
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<b>ANSWER</b>: First, we should continue our climate simulation and climatic data collection activities. Simulation models are the ultimate laboratory for integrating our knowledge and testing hypotheses – but only when the correct data is available for validation of the models.<br />
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Beyond that, the answer to this question really deconvolves into a series of other questions:<br />
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<li>How credible are are current long-term climatic predictions (<i>and in particular, are they sufficiently credible to inform and/or drive national and international policy decisions</i>)?</li>
<li>Presuming current global warming predictions are credible, what are the implications of these predictions for humans & the biosphere (barring a change of course)?</li>
<li>What can we <u><b>really</b></u> do about the factors that may be driving climate change?</li>
<li>What are the negative and beneficial impacts of global climate change, and WHO/WHERE are the "winners and losers" (and there are both) if the dire global climate change predictions are true? </li>
<li>What are the cost/benefit parameters for identifiable mitigative actions?</li>
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<i>At this point, I'm prepared to say that pumping more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere isn't a good idea.</i> I just don't know how bad the consequences of doing so actually are in light of all the other uncertainties, unknowns, and known factors impacting global climate change. So it's almost impossible to quantify the "cost/benefit" ratio of various proposed climate change mitigation actions. Thus I'm skeptical about the wisdom of extremely costly mitigative actions. <br />
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Frankly, I'm also skeptical we can do much, on a global scale, to reduce net green house gas emissions over the next few decades. We <u>should</u> extract every reasonable benefit from new behaviors and
new technologies. But, we must stay grounded in "the possible" rather
than in a dreamworld that will never be. Fossil fuels are king and will remain so (globally) for many decades. Clean coal technology isn't here yet. <span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>So the most important question may well be:</b></span><br />
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<li><i><span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>How can we best adapt to expected climate change scenarios? </b></span></i></li>
</ul>
I'm encouraged by signs that the dialog is beginning to shift to this question (see: <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/04/the-uns-new-focus-surviving-not-stopping-climate-change/359929/" target="_blank">today's post</a> by Uri Friedman and Narula at theAtlantic.com ).<br />
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Well, this post became much longer than I had planned. To sum it all up,<br />
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<li>Yes, the climate is changing, </li>
<li>It isn't clear humans are the major contributors to the change, and</li>
<li>I feel our time and treasure is best spent seeking realistic strategies to adapt to the most probable climate change scenarios, rather than pursing unrealistic and costly schemes that have little real chance of reducing net global green house gas emissions to the levels many in the climate change community feel are required to halt global warming.</li>
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<u><span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>Above all, respect the Scientific Method. It keeps us honest.</b></span></u><br />
<br />
Just Thinking,<br />
SherrellSherrell R. Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02027976431195016041noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1211624219772149197.post-72901352703723666862014-03-13T14:54:00.001-04:002014-03-13T16:35:44.242-04:00Post # 92: Grid Vulnerability and the Prepper Next Door<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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There's a disturbing <a href="http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304020104579433670284061220?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection&mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702304020104579433670284061220.html%3Fmod%3DWSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection" target="_blank">article</a> in today's Wall Street Journal discussing the results of a tightly-held study completed last year by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). According to the Journal, the study, which was focused on U.S. electric grid vulnerability, concluded that <b><i><u>a coordinated attack on as few as nine of the country's 55,000 substations could bring down the entire U.S. grid (Western, Texas, and Eastern). Not only that, but the study apparently concluded the grid would likely stay down for eighteen months or longer! </u></i></b><br />
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All of this, of course, in the wake of last year's "wake up call" <a href="http://www.santacruzsentinel.com/opinion/ci_25117881/editorial-metcalf-substation-attack-could-be-precursor" target="_blank">attack</a> on PG&E's Metcalf, CA substation. During that attack, vandals cut underground phone lines, and fired over 100 rounds into the substation over about an hour, destroying or disabling some seventeen large transformers.<br />
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Today WSJ article immediately raised three related trains of thought in my mind.<br />
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First, the threat of physical and cyber terrorism must obviously be seriously considered – along with other threats such weather and seismic-related phenomena, electromagnetic pulse (natural and man-made), and solar storms such as the 1859 "<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859" target="_blank">Carrington Event</a>", which reportedly not only crashed continental telegraph systems, but actually set telegraph poles on fire in New England. (There is data from Greenland ice cores that suggests solar storms as large as the Carrington Even can be expected every 500 years, and storms 20% this size are to be expected every few decades.) It's hard to imagine the destruction such a storm could cause to our modern electrical and telecommunications grids.<br />
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Secondly, the urgency with which we must proceed to strengthen, modernize, and protect our electrical grid is increasing every day. From my perspective, the vulnerability of the grid to physical (not cyber) attack isn't really that different than it was decades ago. What appears to have changed is (a) the fact there are those out there who actually would seek to attack the grid, and (b) our society is so much more dependent on the grid than we were several decades ago. And of course the cyber vulnerability (not my area of expertise) is a new vulnerability driven by the ever-expanding integration of digital and network technologies into the grid. <b><i>The big question, of course is, exactly how does a society proceed to effectively protect such a vital, fragile, exposed, and accessable infrastructure?</i></b><br />
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Finally, I was reminded of a "Doomsday Prepper" episode I saw some months ago. <i>(Full Disclosure: I'm not a real prepper, but I do feel it's only prudent to at least follow <a href="http://www.fema.gov/pdf/library/f&web.pdf" target="_blank">FEMA's recommendations</a> to prepared for the occasional several-hour to a few days or so of power/water outage.)</i> I recall that episode focused on how society and individuals could prepare for and cope with (1) a global health pandemic, (2) and asteroid impact, and (3) an alien invasion. The experts interviewed for the first and second segments were credible and thoughtful individuals. Unfortunately, the third segment seriously eroded the credibility of the entire program.<br />
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Many, with no small amount of justification, discount the entire "Prepper Movement" as a fringe, bizarre, and irrelevant community. In today's world of cyber attacks and physical terrorism, and with our improved understanding of the expected frequency of natural disasters (such as pandemics, solar storms, asteroid impacts, etc.) a good case can me made that it's unreasonable to live as if these risks don't exist. These risks are real, but most of us simply choose to act as if they <i>don't</i> exist, or to fatalistically resign ourselves to being a victim if they should occur.<br />
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<i><b>So... given the results of the new FERC grid vulnerability study, you might just want to cozy up to that "Prepper Next Door", buy a generator and a lot of fuel, install some solar panels, or ... ???</b></i><br />
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<i><b>Really... how would <u>you</u> cope with an 18 month power outage? </b></i><br />
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And oh by the way, <i>where did I store that flashlight and those jugs of water?</i><br />
<br />
Just Thinking,<br />
Sherrell<br />
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<br />Sherrell R. Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02027976431195016041noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1211624219772149197.post-64389231059148694992014-02-22T13:37:00.001-05:002014-02-22T16:54:55.471-05:00Post # 91: Nuclear Power – Out With The Old & In With The New?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; text-align: center;">
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<span style="color: #990000;"><b><i>Some old things we call "masterpieces".</i></b></span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000;"><b><i>Some old things we call "vintage".</i></b></span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000;"><b><i>Some old things we call "antiques".</i></b></span><br />
<span style="color: #990000;"><b><i>Some old things we call "classics". </i></b></span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000;"><b><i>Some old things we call "quaint".</i></b></span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000;"><b><i>And some old things we call "obsolete".</i></b></span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000;"><b><i>What do we call old nuclear power plants?</i></b></span></h3>
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There's been an interesting discussion thread going recently over on my colleague Rod Adam's <a href="http://atomicinsights.com/westinghouse-ceo-decommissioning-part-nuclear-life-cycle/" target="_blank"><b><i>Atomic Insights</i></b> <i><b>Blog</b></i></a> regarding decommissioning of commercial nuclear power plants (thanks to Joel Riddle for alerting me to the thread)... Much of the dialog there expresses the angst of the pro-nuclear community concerning the collective impact of</div>
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<li>shutdowns of "perfectly good" commercial nuclear power plants that are not profitable</li>
<li>shutdowns of plants that require major investments to continue to operate</li>
<li>shutdowns of plants that simply are "worn out"</li>
<li>the aggressive pursuit of decommissioning business by nuclear reactor vendors</li>
<li>the conversion of nuclear power plant sites to non-nuclear generation uses</li>
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I want to offer some semi-random thoughts on the subject here, as this post is really too lengthy to fit nicely into a comment on Rod's blog...</div>
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<span style="color: #990000;"><b>THE NUCLEAR DECOMMISSIONING BUSINESS:</b></span></div>
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In my view, it is reasonable, proper, and to be expected that our current nuclear plant vendors would aggressively pursue nuclear plant decommission business. Who better to do it? Hurray for Westinghouse! If it needs to be done, I want the guys doing it who know the technology. There seems to be some subliminal fear in some quarters that success in the decommissioning business will steal the hearts of the reactor vendors. Personally, I don't worry about that. It's a business.</div>
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<span style="color: #990000;"><b>NUCLEAR POWER PLANT SHUTDOWNS:</b></span></div>
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Our current fleet of Gen-II nuclear power plants were simply not designed and constructed to accommodate major plant component replacements, upgrades, and improvements. The idea back in the 1960s and early 1970s was that we were entering into a golden era of commercial nuclear power. The "status quo" fleet would be continually evolving to newer and better technologies and plant designs. The nuclear power enterprise would continually renew itself. Plants would run for 40 years (a commerce-based decision – not a technical limitation) and then be replaced with something much better. That didn't happen for a variety of reasons.</div>
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The financial woes of the <u>current</u> nuclear fleet are primarily a function of two things:</div>
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<li>"too-cheap-to-meter" natural gas </li>
<li>electricity market deregulation</li>
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The first factor (cheap natural gas) appears here to stay for at least a decade or two. It's hurting renewables (or would be if they were not so heavily subsidized) and it's gut-punching nuclear power. From a business perspective, who wants to fight the nuclear battle when it's comparatively quick, easy, and cheap to go with natural gas and rake in the profits with practically no tangible downside? The second factor (deregulation) has put a real squeeze on merchant plants – who are finding it increasing difficult to sell their power to customers who have an option to purchase cheap gas-generated power. (This pressure is only going to increase in the foreseeable future.)</div>
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<b>THE WORLD REALLY IS FLAT:</b></div>
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I am not among those who are sanguine that continued nuclear power development elsewhere in the world (outside of the U.S.) will save the nuclear power option. (I wish it were true. I just don't believe it is.) From my perspective, nuclear power plant vendors are continuing to apply the development paradigm that has failed inside the U.S. to international markets. (Any size you want as long as it huge. Any cost you want as long as it's huge...) Very soon, the international market will start to behave more and more like the U.S. market. Factors such as plant cost, plant size, operating complexity, etc., will become at least as large an obstacle to expanded nuclear power deployment elsewhere as they have become here. <i style="color: #990000;"><u><b>What is needed is a fundamental change in the way nuclear power is deployed.</b></u></i> With all due respect, China (not withstanding its recent advanced reactor aspirations) and South Korea cannot succeed in creating a new future for nuclear power by pursuing a worn-out deployment paradigm.</div>
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<span style="color: #990000;"><b>THE "NEW NUCLEAR SOLUTION":</b></span></div>
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I believe the "magic recipe" for the eventual re-emergence of commercial nuclear power has several elements:</div>
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<li><b>Continued safe operation of the current commercial fleet – </b>all bets are off if we sustain another "Fukushima-like" accident. Continued accident-free operation is a prerequisite for a nuclear revival.</li>
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<li><b>Financial</b> – t<b>he capital cost of nuclear nuclear power plant options has to come down</b> <b>radically, or a radical new model for power plant financing must evolve.</b> I'm not a financial guru, and have no magic answers, but I know that $10B market cap companies aren't going to purchase $6B assets solo. It isn't really reasonable in free-market economies for us to expect a technology to prosper if it's entry and incremental capital cost is so large it can only be afforded by 10% of the prospective customers for the technology. </li>
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<li><b>Choice in plant sizes</b> – <b>Small Modular Reactors are essential to match diverse grid sizes, variable demand growth, and generating company budgets.</b> </li>
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<li><b>Longer Plant Lifetimes</b> – I originally shared some thoughts about my concept of <span style="color: #990000;"><b>"<a href="http://sustainableenergytoday.blogspot.com/2009/12/centurion-reactors-achieving-commercial.html" target="_blank">Centurion Reactors</a>"</b></span> back in 2009 here on this blog... Those thoughts were based on some initial thinking I had done a few
years before with Dr. Alvin Weinberg here
in Oak Ridge and a paper I presented on the topic at the 2009 Winter American Nuclear Society Meeting. <b>The inter-generational benefits of plants with 100-yr lifetimes is immense...</b> but there are serious challenges and conflicts to confront (I'll post more on this in the future).</li>
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<li><b>Wise management of nuclear sites</b> – <b>Certified nuclear generation sites are a great resource and a terrible thing to waste. </b> This is a growing issue in the U.S. and Europe. As current generation nuclear plants are shutdown, we need to maintain the ability to repopulate current nuclear plant sites with newer nuclear capacity. This is a particularly thorny challenge because (a) generating companies need the site to generate revenue, and (b) creeping development and population growth around existing sites will make it ever-more difficult to maintain nuclear capacity at some sites. And then there's the question of new nuclear sites – can we make them both "grid accessible" and locate them where they are immune to future population growth around the plant? (This is a major threat to the viability of the Centurion Reactor concept...) </li>
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<li><b>More efficient licensing & regulation of nuclear power plants</b> – plants that may look very different than our present Gen-II fleet.</li>
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<span style="color: #990000;"><b>HOW CAN THIS HAPPEN?</b></span></div>
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<i><b>We have to face our personal demons and inconsistencies as a pro-nuclear community.</b></i></div>
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Many in the pro-nuclear community espouse fiercely free-market / low regulation philosophies while, at the same time, advocating what amounts to a strong top-down federal direction of energy policy. <i>Businesses are in business to make money for their owners by providing value to their customers – not to serve as a instrument of national policy.</i> Public utilities are monopolies who exist to serve basic societal needs in a manner that does not compete inappropriately with the private sector. (Though many would argue this model has been obliterated by the cable TV business – but that's another story...)</div>
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<li>Is electrical energy (and nuclear power in particular) so strategic in terms of our national interest that it should be nationalized (whatever that means)? Most us us would answer "No!" to that question.</li>
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<li>How can a free-market drive us or evolve to an "optimal solution" (whatever that means) with a traditional "one size fits all" product placement strategy?</li>
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<span style="color: #990000;"><i><b>After all... Why is there no nuclear power equivalent to Moore's Law ?</b></i></span> <b>Really</b>.</h3>
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Just Thinking...</div>
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Sherrell</div>
Sherrell R. Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02027976431195016041noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1211624219772149197.post-18709100082844511902014-01-14T11:57:00.000-05:002014-09-27T22:33:11.372-04:00Post # 90: Nuclear Power, Natural Gas, Lemons, and Lemonade<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Everyone reading this blog knows I'm a strong advocate of nuclear power. I've spent much of my career in the commercial nuclear power safety and advanced reactor concept development arenas. But I like to think I'm a realistic and honest advocate. Thus the following thoughts...</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><u><b>THE NUCLEAR ENERGY "LEMON"</b></u></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Readers of this blog are aware the technology of fracking has unleashed hitherto unrecoverable reserves of natural gas and petroleum in the U.S. Barring any unforeseen complications, it appears two of the most significant impacts of the attractive price and availability of these new-found fossil resources in the U.S. will be:</span><br />
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<li><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">the greenhouse gas emissions footprint of electricity production in the U.S. will be significantly reduced on a "per MWhr" basis (that's good); and</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">the sense of urgency and support for development of new non-fossil electricity production technologies will be reduced (that's bad, because if results in over-dependence on a single energy source). </span></li>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">The U.S., for all its strengths, has a lack-luster record of innovation during periods in which two conditions exist:</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"> (A) there is no imminent threat to our lives and livelihoods, and </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"> (B) a low-risk, financially-attractive option exists to meet our immediate needs.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Thankfully, there appears to be no "A" on the horizon, and fracked natural gas wonderfully fits the condition "B".</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">I've blogged before (November 2011, <a href="http://sustainableenergytoday.blogspot.com/2011/11/post-56-energy-technology-innovation.html" target="_blank">Post # 57: Energy Technology: The Innovation Challenge</a>) about the embarrassingly-low rate of innovation in the nuclear energy business and the reasons for it. As I said then,</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">"<i><b><span class="Apple-style-span">The environment in today’s nuclear energy enterprise is hostile to innovation.</span><span class="Apple-style-span"> </span><span class="Apple-style-span">Not by intent, but in reality nevertheless. </span><span class="Apple-style-span"> </span><span class="Apple-style-span">The industry is highly regulated.</span><span class="Apple-style-span"> </span><span class="Apple-style-span">It is very costly to do research, development, and demonstration. </span><span class="Apple-style-span"> </span><span class="Apple-style-span">It’s a very capital-intensive business.</span><span class="Apple-style-span"> </span><span class="Apple-style-span">The barriers to entry are incredibly high.</span><span class="Apple-style-span"> </span><span class="Apple-style-span">The down-side risks of innovation are more easily rendered in practical terms than the upside gains. </span><span class="Apple-style-span"> </span><span class="Apple-style-span">Often
it seems everyone in the enterprise (federal and private sectors) are
so risk-averse that innovation is the last thing on anyone’s mind.</span><span class="Apple-style-span"> </span><span class="Apple-style-span">In this environment, “good-enough” is the enemy of “better”. </span><span class="Apple-style-span"> </span><span class="Apple-style-span">Humans learn by failing.</span><span class="Apple-style-span"> </span><span class="Apple-style-span">It’s the way we learn to walk, talk, and ride a bicycle.</span><span class="Apple-style-span"> </span><span class="Apple-style-span">Our environment today has little tolerance for failures at any level.</span><span class="Apple-style-span"> </span><span class="Apple-style-span">There’s no room for Thomas Edison’s approach to innovation in today’s world. </span></b></i><span class="Apple-style-span"><i><b>On
top of all of this, or perhaps because of it, the nuclear industry
invests less on R&D, as a percentage of gross revenues, than
practically every other major industry you might name.</b></i>"</span></span></span> <br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">This reality, in combination with the absence of an imminent threat or external forcing function, and in the presence of an abundant and "cheap" supply of natural gas; leads me to conclude:</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="color: red;"><b><i>the "U.S. nuclear renaissance" so longed-for by those in the nuclear power community is dead – for the foreseeable future</i></b>.</span><i><span style="color: #3d85c6;"> </span></i></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Stated differently, we seem destined to see, <i>at best</i>, only a handful of large commercial nuclear power plants, and a few evolutionary small modular light water reactor (SMR) power plants constructed in the U.S. over the next twenty years...</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #3d85c6;">That's the "Lemon"</span>. </i>This is the "glass half-empty" view.<i><br /></i></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><u><b>THE NUCLEAR ENERGY "LEMONADE"</b></u></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">You've heard the old adage, "When life gives you lemons, make lemonade..." ? So, what's the "Lemonade"?</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">The era of cheap, abundant natural gas will eventually come to an end. What then? What arrows will we have in our "energy quiver" to replace it?</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b><i>Presuming</i></b> </span><br />
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<li><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">no major commercial nuclear accidents occur that impact public health and the environment; </span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">the Vogtle and Summer construction projects are successful;</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">the world-wide deployment of current and near-term nuclear power plant technologies continue; and </span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">someone(s) actually deploy evolutionary Small Modular Light Water Reactors...</span></li>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">nuclear power will remain an important element of the energy generation mix in the U.S. for the foreseeable future. Thus, nuclear power will have an opportunity to win its way back to the deployment table when conditions change if suitable technology is available at that time.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">The question, then, is "<b><i>What will/should that future nuclear energy option be</i></b>?" <i><b>Can we do it better - <u>far better</u> – that we've done it to date?</b></i></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Thanks to fracking and natural gas, we now have the luxury of considering different approaches to nuclear energy. It appears we will have at least a few decades to ponder that question and to develop the answer.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="color: #3d85c6;"><i>This grace period to incubate and develop improved nuclear energy options is the "Lemonade".<span style="color: black;"> </span></i><span style="color: black;"> This is the "glass half-full" perspective.</span></span> </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><u><b>SQUEEZING THE LEMONS</b></u></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">So, what are the functional attributes of my imagined future "<i>Generation Phoenix</i>" nuclear power plants? </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">F. J. Bertuch (1747-1822)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">I suggest nine attributes that combine to provide a starting point for those who wish to tackle the grand challenge of reverse-engineering <i>Generation Phoenix </i>nuclear energy system concepts for the latter half of the 21st century:</span><br />
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<li><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b>SAFETY/RISK</b>: the plants should be much "safer" (measured in terms of public health risk, investment risk, and environmental risk) than today's plants. The risk of an accident that would result in major land contamination and long-term relocation of surrounding human populations, or major investment loss in the plant, should be significantly lower than that presented by today's plants.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b>CAPITAL & OPERATING COST</b>: the plants must be affordable and, yes, even attractively priced in terms both of their capital and their operating costs. This implies an attractive cost of electricity and process heat delivered to the customer.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b>SIZE</b>: the technology should be scalable. The plants should be available in sizes appropriate to meet the needs of diverse deployment strategies;</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b>LOAD FOLLOWING CAPABILITY:</b> </span></span><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">the plants should have the robust load-following capabilities required to meet dynamic, mixed-generation electrical grids (i.e.</span></span></span><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"> grids with significant wind/solar generation components)</span></span></span>;</span></span> </span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b>DUAL USE</b>: the plants should operate at sufficiently high temperatures to supply the process heat requirements of the (then) current major industries required high-temperature process heat;</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b>RELIABILITY</b>: the plants must be at least as reliable as today's fleet of commercial light water reactors – preferably even more reliable;</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b>PLANT LIFETIME</b>: the plants should have a design lifetime of <i>at least</i> 100 years. They should be designed in such a way that major components can be replaced easily. (I coined the term "<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centurion_Reactor" target="_blank">Centurion Reactors</a>" a few years ago to describe such reactors.)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b>WASTE</b>: the plants must have a radioactive waste management approach that <i><u>society</u></i> (not simply the industry) embraces as acceptable and sustainable;</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b>PROLIFERATION</b>: the plant designs and their operating strategies, when combined with (then) extant nuclear proliferation protocols, must not present an unacceptable nuclear proliferation threat.</span></li>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">So there you have it. My nine performance criteria / functional requirements for future <i>Generation </i></span><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i>Phoenix</i></span></i> nuclear power plants in the "post fracking" or "post-natural-gas" era...</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Achievable? </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Just Thinking...</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">Sherrell </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br /></span>Sherrell R. Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02027976431195016041noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1211624219772149197.post-14555434182374303782013-12-29T14:55:00.000-05:002013-12-30T12:48:20.565-05:00Post # 89: Science and the Sandbox<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;">I'm reading an interesting book that deals with the subject of how science gets done, and how it is converted to societal impact (one of my favorite subjects) –<span itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person"> "<a href="http://www.amazon.com/The-Idea-Factory-American-Innovation/dp/0143122797/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1388341127&sr=8-1&keywords=bell+labs" target="_blank"><i><b>The Idea Factory: Bell Labs and the Great Age of Innovation</b></i></a>". I've also found one can gain interesting (sometime provocative) insights on the same subject from the </span>Nobel Banquet Speeches of newly-donned Nobel Prize winners. This week I read Dr. Randy W. Schekman's Dec. 10 Nobel Banquet Speech. Dr. Schekman is a co-winner of this year's Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine. He delivered a short but thought-provoking <b><a href="http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/medicine/laureates/2013/schekman-speech.html" target="_blank">speech</a></b> on the role of government in "managing" science...</span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;">Schekman quotes from Vannevar Bush's (Bush was the science adviser to Presidents Roosevelt and Truman) 1945 report, "<span itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person"><a href="http://www.nsf.gov/od/lpa/nsf50/vbush1945.htm" target="_blank"><b><i><u>Science: Endless Frontiers</u></i></b></a>":</span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;">"<span itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person"><i>Scientific
progress on a broad front results from the free play of free intellects,
working on subjects of their own choice, in the manner dictated by
their curiosity for exploration of the unknown ... Freedom of inquiry
must be preserved under any plan for government support of science.</i>"</span></span></span> <br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;">Schekman then goes on to lament the modern tendency for governments to meddle with scientists' exercise of their curiosity and talents:</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;">"<span itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person"><i>... And yet we find a
growing tendency for government to want to manage discovery with
expansive so-called strategic science initiatives at the expense of the
individual creative exercise we celebrate today. Louis Pasteur
recognized this tension long before the trend towards managed science.
He wrote, "There does not exist a category of science to which one can
give the name applied science. There are sciences and the application of
science, bound together as the fruit of the tree which bears it</i>".</span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person" style="font-size: small;">With all due respect to Schekman, one is left with the impression he believes the more appropriate role of government is simply to spread funding around to a "Priesthood of Scientists". The Priesthood, snug in their laboratory sanctuaries, and safe from the buffeting of current human and environmental realities, would deliver a continuing cornucopia of discoveries that would somehow solve society's and the planet's most pressing needs. <i>I guess, in Schekman's mathematics:</i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person">Funding + Faith – Oversight = Useful Solutions</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person"><i><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">REALLY? </span></i></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person">Schekman continues by citing Louis Pasteur as an example of someone who recognized the evils of "managed science". While it is certainly true one can identify a plethora of examples in which the results of basic research yield unexpected impacts, the elapsed time between the research and the impact vary wildly. (<i>Brings to mind the old story about the blind hog underneath the acorn tree...</i>)</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person"><b><i>But a different view</i></b> was offered back in 1997 by Donald Stokes, in his book, "<i><b><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Pasteurs-Quadrant-Science-Technological-Innovation/dp/0815781776" target="_blank">Pasteur's Quadrant – Basic Science and Technological Innovation</a></b></i>". Stokes was himself, no lightweight. For eighteen years he was the Dean of Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. Among other things, he was a fellow of </span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person">the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the National Academy of Public
Administration, and the American Association for the Advancement of
Science. </span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person">Contrary, to Schekman's view, Stokes, whose analysis of the interplay between unbridled scientific research and federal public policy spans the period from the late 1800s through the late 1990s, concludes that federal support should be focused on "<i><b>use-inspired basic research</b></i>" – <i>research that is related to and focused on delivery of impact and results relevant to today's pressing challenges</i>. (Italicized words are mine, not Stokes'. Read his book for the details...)</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person">There
are of course, different perspectives on the relationship between "discovery science" and "applied research" and their justifications based on "delivered solutions" and
"societal impact". And then there's the question of the appropriate roles of the public vs. private sector, and the individual (or "lone wolf" ) researcher vs. large research organizations. All of this, and much more can and should influence public policy relative to and federal funding of the scientific enterprise.</span></span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person"> </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person">With all due respect to Dr. </span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person"><span itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person">Schekman</span>, I lean heavily toward Stokes' view. From my vantage point scientific research (especially in the U.S.) suffers from multiple unhealthy realities and dissonant voices:</span></span></span></div>
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<li><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person"><b><i>A weakening of society's belief in absolute truth and the value of seeking it.</i></b> The unavoidable result of the weakening of belief in absolute truth is a devaluation of the search for it – a reduction of support for research and pursuit of knowledge. Think about it...</span></span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person"><b><i>An entitlement mentality on the part of many in the scientific research business. </i></b> Schekman's comments (to me) hint of this attitude. You can see it manifested in many quarters. One that comes to mind is the aggressive position taken by SOME in the global climate change research community that we should pour enormous amounts of funding into the research agenda of the global climate change community without regard to requirements for true verification and validation of methods and models against real-world data (but that's a subject for a future blog.)</span></span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person"><i><b><span itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person"><i><b>Shrinking federal "discretionary" budgets.</b></i></span></b></i><span itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person"> Scientific research comes after paying the federal debt, entitlement programs, and national defense. (Who can argue with that?)</span></span></span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person"><i><b>A distortion of Stokes' definition of "use-inspired basic research" by leaders in the federal research establishment.</b></i> It is very difficult to reconcile an objective reading of Stokes definition of use-inspired basic research, with some elements of the federal R&D portfolio for the past decade or two. Pasteur wasn't playing around in a sandbox with blind faith that a cascade of useful solutions to pressing problems would somehow magically emerge. <i>He was focused</i> on lines of research relevant to his chosen problem. Things have begun to improve a bit with regard to federal R&D investments over the past few years, but I'm confident an objective review of the federal R&D portfolio would bring to light a plethora of "R&D investments" that are simply impossible to justify based on prudent public policy.</span></span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person"><i><b>A demand, in some quarters, that every federal research investment must be successful. </b></i> This risk-averse viewpoint, often touted by those claiming to be caretakers of the American Taxpayer, is misguided and whispers a misunderstanding of how scientific discovery, engineering research, and technology development enterprises work. This relates closely to Schekman's (valid, in my view) lament that many in the government bureaucracy believe discoveries and breakthroughs can be "programmed" and scheduled. </span></span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person"><i><b>A focus on <u>immediate</u> return on scientific research investment by non-governmental entities. </b></i>This is (sort of) the opposite view of the entitlement crowd. It is held and practiced by many industrial concerns. "<i>If we can't see a substantial return on our research investment within 2-3 years, we shouldn't be doing it.</i>" (I've blogged before about the embarrassing-low levels of research investment by the private sector in the nuclear energy arena.)</span></span></span></li>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;">So, enough regurgitation of the status quo . What are my proposed solutions? </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;">More about that in an upcoming post! :)</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;">Just Thinking &</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;">Happy New Year!</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;">Sherrell</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></span></span></span>Sherrell R. Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02027976431195016041noreply@blogger.com0